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楼市入冬探底可期 2017年下半年住宅市场望迎回暖

2016-12-29 11:01:26   

经过一个月的调控后,因政策力度不一,部分城市的调控效果并未到达预期。于是,自11月中旬起,深圳、杭州、武汉、南京、上海、天津等城市再度加码调控,并将调控聚焦在了货币政策之上。

值得一提的是,12月下旬,2016年中央经济工作会议闭幕,会议强调了要抑制房地产泡沫和去杠杆,继续透露出货币收紧的信号,并致力于研究建立符合国情、适应市场规律的基础性制度和长效机制。

在此背景下,2017年房地产市场调控政策是否会继续加码,是市场普遍关注的焦点问题。本次会议提出,明年要加快研究建立符合国情、适应市场规律的房地产平稳健康发展长效机制。

从以往来看,房地产调控更多是短期政策,因此经常随着经济走势而出现波动。长效机制意味着房地产市场发展不能只靠一时的应急调控政策,关键是需要完善长期制度建设,房地产税等长期政策有望加快落地。建立房地产平稳健康发展的长效机制,意味着要处理好住房消费和投资、房地产和经济增长的协调关系。另外必须降低房地产的投资属性,回归居住属性。因此,在业界看来下一步应加快住房、土地供应、房地产税收等制度,以长效机制引导市场稳预期。

具体来看,一线城市的土地供应稀缺,土地价格越来越高。以往忙于“拍地、卖楼”的开发商在这一轮的调整中将面临多元化发展经营的问题。对企业而言,开发商很难保持高增长,单一粗放的“买卖”模式,需要进一步结合可持续性“经营”模式,优化运营高品质的商业项目,为日后获取稳定的收益做好准备。这意味着开发企业需要降低负债,并积极提升项目营销管理,真正下好可持续发展的“资产管理”这盘棋。

因此2017年上半年应该是住宅市场的深度调整期,成交量及价格都将放缓,2017年下半年市场有望迎来逐步回暖,具体力度还要看整体经济的情况。据此来看,2017年下半年应该是住宅市场的分水岭。

(责编:孙阳、夏晓伦)

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