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伊拉克库尔德自治区批准独立公投 土耳其等国强烈反对
目前距离预定的公投日期已不足10天,外界无法判断库区政府是否可能会在压力下,推迟甚至取消公投计划。但从目前的情况看,库区独立面临巨大的内外压力,在短期内并不现实。
首先,库区几乎没有得到任何外部势力的支持。其次,库区内部也存在诸多分歧。在15日的议会投票中,库区议会111名议员中仅有68人出席当晚的会议,库区两个反对党组织30名议员抵制了当天的会议。
长期以来,库区政府和伊拉克中央政府关系紧张,双方在多个省份的土地归属上有分歧,特别是石油储量丰富的基尔库克省。在库区宣布公投日期后,双方在“争议地区”问题上的博弈便迅速展开。分析人士认为,由于中央政府和库区在“争议地区”特别是基尔库克省的归属问题上均不退让,如库区坚持在这些地区举行公投,不排除发生冲突的可能。李绍先指出,独立公投是一回事,而要真正走上独立,则还有其他条件需要满足才行。第一必须得到国际社会的承认,第二还得和伊拉克政府谈判,到底边界在什么地方。
外界观察表示,面对库尔德的所谓独立公投,虽然伊拉克拒绝承认其合法性,但是其后必然有美国的威慑,不排除做做样子的可能。但是,如果伊拉克的库尔德人能够成功,那么其余三国的库尔德人必然有所呼应。引爆库尔德问题,是否意味着中东又打开了一个新的潘多拉魔盒?所谓的公投,又将为中东带来哪些影响?李绍先观察,这将给中东局势添加新的动荡的因素,同时对土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚的库尔德人产生重要影响,可以用“牵一发而动全身”形容。
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