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单边预期并非监管所愿 未来人民币汇率更具弹性

2017-09-14 10:07:30   央广网

未来人民币是否会继续强势涨下去?华融证券首席经济学家伍戈表示,随着美国经济向好及利率和缩表指标向上,中国经济指标边际趋缓,未来一段时间,人民币的升值空间非常有限。

温彬也表示,今年最大的不确定性就是美元指数,美联储是不是会缩表,是什么节奏,这将影响美元指数的变化。对此中国需要进一步完善政策制度,更好地适应汇率的双向波动。

按照央行二季度货币政策执行报告中所说,下一步将进一步完善人民币汇率市场化形成机制,加大市场决定汇率的力度,增强人民币汇率双向浮动弹性,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

可以看到,应对人民币近期的持续升值,央行已经利用宏观审慎手段进行了反向调整。本周开始,央行将外汇风险准备金率由20%下调为0。人民币汇率应声连跌。

人民币汇率将更具弹性

实际上,自2015年8月11日汇改至今,对中国货币当局进行汇率、跨境资金的管控方式,市场讨论颇多。陆磊在论坛上阐述了监管的思路,以及未来人民币和汇率市场的发展方向。

他指出,身处一个变化的时代,资本流动、汇率的影响因子更加复杂和高频。

过去若干年,中国开放的步伐不断迈进,目前已经实现了经常项目完全可兑换,资本项下目前除了极少数的涉及个人对外投资的领域没有开放,也基本实现可兑换。“这就自然而然形成本币和外币在更广范围内流通的事实,这对管理层面提出新的要求,也就是说如何防控风险。”陆磊指出。

他称,目前各类投资者更加关注中国企业的杠杆率、商业银行的资产质量、地方政府的负债等微观层面对币值的影响。这对监管构成的压力是,需要从一般均衡而不是局部均衡的角度来思考问题。所以,对所需要的知识量、信息量、信息处理的方式都提出了要求,其中一个非常关键的是金融市场基础设施需要实时反映各个交易者、交易量、所需要清算的额度,以及是否具有CCP(中央对手方),以确保每一天每一个时间节点市场是相对平稳的。

尤其是,当市场发生一致预期时,需要有一个强力主体形成相关管理,这就是现在探索的跨境资本流动,以及金融风险的总体性风险、系统性风险的宏观审慎管理制度框架。

“在大家一致看好时,给降降温;在大家一致看空时,给提提劲儿。”陆磊指出。与此同时,宏观审慎管理不仅仅是这些宏观变量的逆周期的、对手方交易,还有系统重要性金融机构的管理。

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