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8月CPI、PPI齐涨 解读:不存在明显通胀压力

2017-09-10 09:57:39   央广网

水泥、焦炭、混凝土等价格也都涨势明显,以山东地区为例,混凝土价格已经从7月每立方350元上涨到现在的570元。高先生说,这段时间做生意,很多客商都不问价格,只关注是否有现货。原因和环保限产也有关系,再就是钢厂往上抬价,钢材成本其实变化不大。

生产企业利润增加,生产积极性也高了,那么,这轮生产资料价格上涨又能持续多久呢?卓创资讯钢铁行业研究员刘新伟认为,这轮钢材价格上涨缺乏下游需求的有效支撑,更多是市场对于未来供给收缩的预期,短期内钢材价格有回调趋势,长远来看,价格还将上涨。

刘新伟分析,“这一波上涨资本力量在其中发挥了不可磨灭作用,已经超出市场预期,市场顶部已经形成要调整的姿态,九月份可能要回调行情,回调完成后,还是会有一个上涨的态势,从价格变动看,主要是市场对未来供给预期是收缩状态,实际上市场上需求量并没有出现好的调整。”

在国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究室主任张立群看来,生产资料价格上涨也表明,在国内外市场需求总体趋向平稳、而去产能等工作持续深入的背景下,企业的发展空间不断增大,未来PPI不会出现大起大落。“现在整个生产资料的供给能力很大。只要市场的价格信号有一些刺激,相关的生产增加的潜力比较大。”

虽然8月CPI、PPI呈现了扩张态势,但是,市场分析却普遍认为,目前这些价格的上行都在可控范围内。交通银行首席经济学家连平肯定地表示,PPI在今年后几个月涨幅小幅回落是大概率事件,整体而言,目前不存在明显通胀压力,不会对货币政策等宏观政策造成影响。

连平认为,在经济下行压力比较大的情况下,整个货币政策还是比较平稳,总体来说,目前的价格波动不会对货币政策带来实质性的影响,反过来说,货币政策对目前的物价水平可以不必更多的进行考量,当然更不需要采取什么政策来对它进行应对。

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