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机构预测8月份CPI同比增1.7%

2017-09-04 07:05:51   中国经济网

专家表示,8月份生产资料价格指数、PMI原材料购进价格指数等延续回升态势

■本报记者 苏诗钰

9月9日,国家统计局将公布8月份全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI),近期较多机构预测,8月份CPI与PPI均保持同比上涨,其中CPI环比或上涨0.4%,同比增速或升至1.7%。

商务部发布的数据显示,8月份全国食用农产品市场价格指数一直处于上涨趋势。具体来看,7月31日至8月6日,全国食用农产品市场价格指数比前一周上涨0.5%,8月7日至13日,市场价格指数同样比前一周上涨0.5%,8月21日至27日,市场价格指数则比前一周上涨0.2%。此外,从国家统计局公布的50个城市主要食品平均价格旬度变动情况来看,8月上中旬主要食品价格也是涨多跌少。

第一创业一位分析师昨日表示,就8月份食品价格而言,估算各品种的环比价格,结果是涨多跌少,鸡蛋和蔬菜价格的涨幅较大,在10%以上,仅水果价格有所下跌。而就8月份工业品出厂价格而言,钢铁、有色金属和铁矿石的价格涨幅均较大,都在5%以上。

中邮证券一位分析师告诉《证券日报》记者,预计8月份CPI同比上涨1.7%。其中,食品价格同比上涨0.4个百分点,对CPI贡献0.1个百分点;非食品价格同比上涨2.1个百分点,对CPI贡献1.6个百分点。从月环比看,8月份CPI环比或上涨0.4%。下半年CPI同比涨幅可能会略低于上半年,但全年通胀压力不大。另外,预测2017年8月份PPI同比上涨5.7%。

中信建投证券宏观经济与固定收益研究团队首席分析师黄文涛昨日表示,8月份猪肉价格小幅上涨,叠加去年同期猪肉价格小幅回落,基数走低导致同比跌幅继续缩小。鲜菜价格自8月份以来持续高位,预计菜价同比增速将有所扩大。蛋价同比增速可能将延续回升态势。高频数据监测结果显示,食品价格环比增速较上月有所回升。整体考虑,预计8月份CPI环比上涨0.4%,同比增速或升至1.7%。

“预计PPI同比增速回升。8月份生产资料价格指数、PMI原材料购进价格指数等延续回升态势。根据高频数据测算,8月份PPI环比增速可能达到0.5%,带动同比增速回升至5.9%附近。”黄文涛表示。

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