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其次,把“交叉混业”和“亏损大户”两顶帽子戴在中铁总头上并不公允。高铁建设与运营,热线盈利而冷线亏损系“股份制亏损”,亏损额或盈利额由中铁总、沿线地方政府及其余参股主体按股权分摊或分红,也即这本账是相对独立的。至于绿皮车客运和货运亏损,系典型的政策性亏损,予以政府补贴是各国通行做法。至于中铁总目前65.1%的负债率,主要是用于有刚性需求拉动的铁路建设尤其是高铁建设的过程性负债。作为国家战略性优质实物资产,在几十年还贷期限内,是完全可以最终消化的。所见,公益与亏损并不是铁路混改的“绊脚石”。
铁路的最大资产是什么?除了路网,最宝贵的是沿线待开发土地资产,是大数据、大物流的开发与应用,是与互联网、物联网及现代物流的深度融合与共享。把这些潜力发掘出来,其市场价值将远超中铁总的债务总量。就此,阿里、腾讯、顺丰等民企在与中铁总前期合作中已有颇多感触与感受。可见,混改无须一上来就触碰铁路亏损部分,更无须利用民资填充亏损窟窿,而是着眼于运输部分之外的铁路资产综合经营开发,先共同做大增量蛋糕。
建立于以上客观分析,当民营资本成为中铁总小股东之时,仅仅是中铁总资本经营的先期试水,之后更恢弘的混改大戏更值得期许与憧憬。
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