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多空交织 债市波段操作为主

2017-08-30 09:51:57   中国经济网

年内通胀压力不大

央行维稳流动性

9月资金面压力较大,不过央行大概率通过“削峰填谷”,维稳市场流动性。8月资金面压力不大,但依然可以清晰看出央行“削峰填谷”熨平流动性波动。面对税期和央行逆回购到期等因素,央行公开市场转为净投放。随着缴税高峰渐过,央行公开市场净投放逐步缩量。临近月末,考虑到财政支出、地方国库现金管理商业银行定期存款操作、金融机构法定准备金退缴等因素对流动性的补给,央行公开市场并未体现出对流动性过多的呵护。

特别国债方面,财政部表示将采取滚动发行方式,向有关银行定向发行6000亿元特别国债,同时央行将面向有关银行开展公开市场操作。央行研究局局长徐忠表示,此次特别国债滚动发行基本上比照2007年的做法,不会对金融市场和银行体系流动性产生影响。进入9月,除去央行逆回购到期外,影响资金面的因素还有季末MPA考核,近2.3万亿元同业存单到期等,央行大概率会呵护市场流动性。在去杠杆的背景下,当资金面压力边际出现缓解时,央行也不可能进行大放水操作,临近9月末,财政支出的释放便会制约央行公开市场操作量。

监管细则逐步明朗

监管方面,随着银行业“三三四”自查结束,监管细则将陆续出台,不过对期债冲击将弱于4月。央行发布《2017年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》称,继续实施稳健中性货币政策,加强金融监管协调,促进资产管理业务规范健康发展,拟于2018年一季度评估时起,将资产规模5000亿元以上银行发行的一年以内同业存单纳入MPA同业负债占比指标进行考核。此外,也有消息称,5万亿级货币基金将迎最严新规,重点指向同业存单配置,限制或禁止货币基金对部分商业银行同业存单的投资。这意味着同业存单将从供给和需求两方面受到限制,但是此前银监会发布的53号文表示,检查同业存单计入同业融入资金余额是否超过银行负债总额的三分之一。

考虑到市场已有预期,故同业存单监管对债市造成的冲击有限。在8月18日“银监会近期工作通报”通气会上,银监会相关人士表示,银行业“三三四”检查已基本完成自查阶段,目前正在有序推动后续监管检查和整改工作。3月底4月初,金融监管对债市冲击较大,此次随着银行业自查的结束,监管细则将逐步明朗化,不过鉴于市场预期和加强金融监管协调,预计冲击将弱于4月。

美联储大概率缩表

外围方面,美联储大概率开启缩表,不过负面冲击或有限。当前外围对国内的影响主要是美朝冲突和美联储缩表。美朝局势持续紧张,引发避险情绪升温,对我国债市形成一定的支撑。虽然美联储对12月是否加息没有达成一致意见,但9月开启缩表的可能性较大,在美联储7月货币政策会议纪要中,虽没有透露缩表启动的具体时间,但可能会在9月宣布相关决定,预计只会温和缩表。综合考虑美联储或温和缩表,市场已有充分预期,故即使美联储9月缩表靴子落地,对我国的影响或有限。外汇方面,受美国经济数据好坏不一,特朗普政策不确定性的影响,美元延续弱势,人民币兑美元汇率稳中走强,有助于缓解资本外流压力,对国内流动性形成补充。

整体上,8月主要经济数据将有所反弹、9月资金面承压、监管细则陆续出台、美联储9月缩表可能性较大等施压期债市场,而央行维稳市场流动性、年内通胀压力较小形成一定的支撑,受多空因素的影响,国债期货近期或延续振荡行情,建议轻仓波段操作为主。

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