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菜粕 后期偏弱运行概率较大
2017-08-29 10:11:58 中国经济网
去年11月,中加就油菜籽进口问题达成一致,不再要求条件严苛的质量标准,因此加拿大油菜籽出口到中国畅通无阻。今年以来,油菜籽进口量较去年明显增加。据海关统计,2017年7月,我国油菜籽进口量为40.39万吨,同比增加18.4%;1—7月为303.93万吨,同比去年增加30.14%。截至目前,国内港口油厂油菜籽库存仍居于相对高位。据监测,截至8月25日,国内沿海油厂油菜籽库存为52.2万吨,周环比增加4.5万吨。油菜籽进口量增加促使压榨量增加,菜粕产出量相应上升。
加拿大油菜种植面积增加
加拿大是我国最主要的油菜籽进口来源国。由于近几年该国油菜籽出口和压榨状况良好,加之国际小麦价格较为低迷,加拿大农民种植油菜积极性提高。据加拿大统计局发布的报告显示,预计加拿大2017年油菜种植面积将达2240万英亩,较2016年的2040万英亩增加9.9%,创出历史最高纪录,首次超过小麦播种面积。
目前加拿大油菜籽尚在生长期间,前期部分主产区降雨较少,出现干旱。据监测,截至7月结束,头号油菜籽产区萨斯喀彻温省约70%的地区土壤墒情不好。8月初阿尔伯塔省油菜生长优良率仅为57%,比上年同期低27%。曼尼托巴省政府近期表示,数周来天气高温干燥,油菜作物受到一些损害。受干旱影响,市场预期油菜籽单产可能下降,总产量可能低于预期。
据加拿大农业部发布的月度报显示,今年加拿大油菜籽单产为2.03吨/公顷,总产量为1860万吨,比早先预期值低40万吨,但仍高于去年的1850万吨,为历史最高水平。
近期随着降雨增多,干旱忧虑大为缓解,加拿大油菜生长条件有所改善,油菜籽产量被继续调高将是大概率事件。
图为历年来加拿大油菜籽产量(单位:千吨)
菜粕消费难有大的增长
今年国内菜粕供应相对充裕,但是消费却没有明显增加,甚至还略有下滑,这是今年以来国内菜粕期现货价格走势偏弱的重要原因。
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