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新科技革命会引发什么样的产业变革

2017-08-25 09:31:52   中国青年网

新时期的科技革命呈现出智能化、生态化等特点

首先,基础科学与新兴高技术领域各自分别出现跨界融合与交叉分化的发展态势,这是由于新兴学科以及前沿技术领域的不断出现与创新而引起的,新的科技发展模式正在形成,实现从基础科学到应用技术产业领域发展的新境界。例如,新一轮信息技术与脑科学、数学等学科领域的交叉融合将会极大地推动人工智能、机器人技术产业的发展,同时对人类在新时期揭示大脑的秘密也具有重要的促进作用。其次,科技革命的发展更加注重绿色服务化与生态文明化,绿水青山就是金山银山,工业化的进程虽然带来了生产力的巨大变革,但其负面影响特别是对环境与资源方面的影响日益恶化,21世纪人类面临的发展问题更为严峻与迫切,要求科技面向绿色化、智能化、生态化的方向发展。未来的科技革命将注重生态环境的修复保护、自然资源的合理利用、致力于开发新能源等绿色技术产品。

第三次工业革命具有一些明显的特征。首先是生产方式将发生根本性变革,数字智能化将成为主流的模式。21世纪信息技术革命仍具有主导性地位,其本质上就是包括信息、数字、智能化的一场技术革命,这些信息化数字化科技与生产管理方式的综合协同创新,一方面会引发已有产业的转型升级、推动新兴产业的发展,更重要的是它会引发生产方式、生产组织模式、甚至人类思维模式的全方位变革。其次,能源结构将以可再生能源互联网配置为主体结构模式。新时期能源技术革命的关键就是要使可再生能源成为能源结构的主体,同时新能源技术本身也是众多技术的融合点。新一轮产业变革的能源主体是以诸如风能、太阳能、潮汐、地热等可再生能源为主体,同时以“可再生能源+新型互联网通讯技术”为核心模式,并且产生新的能源储备技术,将实现资源的合理利用与经济社会的永续发展。

新科技革命与产业变革的互动具有复杂性

首先,科技革命与产业变革有直接的因果联系,但科技革命只有在合理的社会体制与经济条件下才能引发产业变革,这从第一、二次工业革命中均可以明显体现出来。第一次工业革命是以力学为理论基础,蒸汽机的发明则是理论的实际应用,由此来引发机器大工业生产等变革,而力学基础早在17世纪科学革命中已经奠定。第二次工业革命,科技与产业关联的效应更加明显,热力学电磁理论等直接推动了内燃机及电动机等产业革命。产业变革的直接动力来自科技革命,但并非任何科技革命都一定会引发产业变革。例如,哥白尼的天文学革命并未引发产业变革。古希腊的希罗发明了类似于蒸汽机的一种动力机器,完全算是一场技术革命,但未能引起一场产业变革,这也是出于一定的社会经济原因。21世纪,国际科技合作交流日益深化,经济全球化进一步加深,各主要发达国家对新一轮科技革命的到来都高度重视,这就为即将到来的产业变革奠定了良好的经济制度、社会制度、环境条件的基础。欧、美、亚洲等具有良好社会制度及科技发展土壤的国家将会成为新一轮产业变革的重点爆发区域。

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