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养老金首现A股市场影响几何?

2017-08-24 05:51:58   中国青年网

目前,尽管养老金只有很小部分的资金入市,投资战略还未完全清晰,但基本上只能赢不能亏,结合养老金入市目的,低风险偏好属性叠加资产保值增值的诉求将使得其资产配置风格更贴近基本面,与当前政策引导价值投资的趋势相一致。从政策取向以及试点期间的表现来看,养老金入后的投资风格和操作策略被认为将大概率参考社保基金投资经验。对比社保基金,可对养老金的投资战略略知一二。

中泰证券相关人士介绍,以往的社保基金投资风格,主要倾向于配置低估值、稳定增长和高分红的中等市值公司。记者了解到,从估值分布看,社保基金呈现出“轻小盘、重中大盘”的特征,其中,超配范围大多集中在100亿元-500亿元的中等规模公司股票中。在行业分布上,除了医药、食品饮料等大消费行业,社保基金对部分新兴产业也有较强的投资意愿,而对钢铁、煤炭、金融等传统周期行业的配置比例并不高。行业偏好方面,社保基金配置标的在绝对数量上排名前列的行业分别为医药生物、化工、电子、TMT、机械设备、公用事业和房地产;而行业总值配置占比上,社保基金更倾向于配置休闲服务、农林牧渔、TMT、医药生物、食品饮料和轻工纺服等行业。

C 长期或将改善市场投资者

那么养老金入市能否激发资金大规模入市呢?

中信建投证券相关人士指出,养老金投资主要以固定收益为主,预计国内基本养老金的A股总配置比例应该在10%左右,带给市场的增量资金规模上限在2000亿元上下。从养老金入市的资金规模来看,其短期内所能为A股市场带来的实际总量效应有限。

不过,也有业内人士认为,养老金由于其特殊性,在二季度3000点到3300点这一区间入市,表明其对市场价值的认同,将提振市场信心。从长期看,由于其追求价值投资,对短期投机性投资具有一定的抑制作用,从而有利于减少股指波动的幅度,遏制股票指数的大涨大跌,在一定程度上将起到稳定市场的作用,与此同时,养老金入市有助于完善A股市场的投资者结构,其低风险偏好属性叠加资产保值增值的诉求,决定了其投资理念将注重业绩的增长、盈利模式的稳定性,与当前政策引导的长期投资理念相一致。

由于本次养老金亮相的两只个股是中小创,而非此前市场普遍预期的大蓝筹。长信基金人士表示,此次养老金买入中小盘股,起到一个非常重要的信号作用,养老金对权益资产的选择并不局限于蓝筹股、大盘股,而是注重对优质个股的选择。展望后市,三季度利率可控、政策较之前温和,遵循业绩主线继续轮动,寻找低估值、高性价比的板块和个股。

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