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人民币汇率双向波动将成常态

2017-09-22 06:42:09   中国经济网

在日前渣打银行发布的一份研究报告认为,近期人民币快速升值是未来中国资本账户进一步开放的前兆。该报告认为,未来中国资本账户将实现有管理的可兑换。近期中国政府在管理人民币汇率预期上取得成功,将有助于提升中方应对资本账户开放之后系列挑战的信心。

正是基于这一判断,渣打银行认为近期中国央行下调外汇交易风险准备金的做法是资本账户开放的积极举措。下调风险准备金率也被视为中国监管层外汇市场供给平衡能力和信心的提升,也意味着未来中国汇率市场化改革还将进一步延续下去。

谈及未来人民币汇率的走势,罗伯特·米尼金表示,短期内市场走势以稳定为主。此前人民币对美元升值初期,部分出口商对冲和结汇的意愿仍然不高。但随着近期人民币持续走高,预计将会有越来越多的公司开始实行结汇和风险对冲,这将进一步推升人民币。与此同时,当前美元仍然处于弱势状态,预计未来人民币对美元汇率还将走强,但有可能实现对一篮子货币的回调。

罗伯特·米尼金强调,在未来四季度人民币汇率预测中,各方都在强调未来美联储议息会议的影响。由于人民币对美元汇率与美元指数高度关联,同时中美利差在汇率走势上影响巨大,市场将重点关注美联储前瞻指引,尤其是对通胀的态度,并作为未来人民币汇率走势的重要判断依据。

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