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1、变局:六十年后或首现三党组阁
德国总理往往是议会多数党的成员,由议会选举产生,任期四年,掌握大部分实权。德国大选不仅仅是选出某个人当选总理,更重要的是在选后由各党派重新组成一个联合执政的政府,执政党或者党派联盟必须拥有议会50%以上的席位。本次大选由于没有任何政党单独获得过半数选票,因此得票率最高的联盟党需要同其他党派联合组阁。
24日晚,有德媒援引社民党高层人士的话说,该党高层已达成共识,本次大选后将不参与由联盟党主导的联合政府,原因是避免社民党自身实力继续被强势的联盟党“蚕食”。由于默克尔的联盟党无法拿下半数选票,前执政伙伴、议会第二大党社民党又已排除再次与其共组“大联合政府”的可能,接下来的联合政府组建,外界广泛预期默克尔的联盟党可能会与左翼的绿党和再度兴起、在经济上属于强硬自由派的自由民主党结盟组成所谓“牙买加联盟”,这3个政党的代表色分别为黑、黄、绿,恰好与牙买加国旗颜色相同,形成一个大党(联盟党)带着两个小党(自民党和绿党)的组阁模式。由于这样的组合在联邦层面从未出现过,德国媒体认为相关谈判可能至少需要1个月的时间。因此,尽管本届大选默克尔无悬念地轻松获胜,但却有可能遭遇艰难的组阁谈判。
作为“老朋友”,联盟党和自民党的组阁谈判或许稍微轻松一些。2009年默克尔开始其第二个任期时,自民党曾以15%的得票率接受默克尔的组阁邀请进入政府。但是,长期的在野党地位,使自民党缺乏执政经验,在政治表现上太过毛躁,上一届大选甚至没能进入议会,让人们对其执政能力打了个问号。现在,两党之间在欧洲建设方面也存在许多分歧。绿党则素与联盟党不睦,2005年默克尔组阁时,甚至明确表示不会与绿党合作。尽管时过境迁,联盟党在州政府层面已与绿党组建执政联盟,但是由于绿党立场中间偏左,与联盟党和自由民主党中间偏右的立场有一定差别。在能源政策上,自民党与绿党存在分歧。在移民等问题上,绿党与联盟党也有矛盾。总而言之,三党联合政府在政策协调、决策上会更加掣肘,因此,主导组阁的联盟党通常会更加谨慎。自1957年以来,德国就一直没出现过三党联合政府。
2、抱负:默克尔想留下“历史遗产”
无论组阁谈判结果如何,有一件事情是基本确定的,那就是有着德国政坛常青树之称的女总理默克尔将迎来自己的第四个总理任期,这意味着她将与自己的政治导师、德国战后执政时间最长的总理科尔并驾齐驱,有望追平其执政16年的战后总理任期纪录。
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