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专访:当前全球经济能更好应对美联储“缩表”——访美国彼得森国际经济研究所所长亚当·波森

2017-09-25 20:17:52   新华网

今年美联储已加息两次,但美元非但没有升值,反而出现大幅贬值。波森表示,美元并不一定跟随美联储加息而升值,美元走势更多受市场意料之外的信息影响。他认为,特朗普政府与美国国会尚未通过税改等重要立法、美国通胀数据低迷和美联储加息次数低于市场预期是今年美元汇率走低的主要原因。

波森表示,未来美元走势与美财政政策变化有很大关系。如果美国国会在今年底之前通过大规模的减税法案,市场预期美国经济短期内增长更快,同时预期美联储将更快加息,美元可能再度走强。

此外,美联储高层人事变动也可能对货币政策和美元汇率产生影响。费希尔宣布今年10月提前离任,美联储主席耶伦任期将于明年2月结束,特朗普总统将有机会提名美联储7名理事中的4名,包括下一届美联储主席。

波森认为,特朗普提名的结果可能使美联储更加“鸽派”,最终收紧货币政策的程度将低于预期。考虑到美国通胀水平已连续好几年低于2%的目标,他认为,短期来看更加“鸽派”的美联储对美国经济不见得是坏事。

相对货币政策,波森更担心下一届美联储主席在金融监管改革上“开倒车”。他表示,在今年8月底怀俄明州杰克逊谷地举办的经济政策研讨会上,耶伦和欧洲央行行长德拉吉都警告特朗普政府不要大幅放松金融监管。

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