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两个不一样的6.9%:当前这个6.9%的含金量更高
2015年全年和2017年上半年,我国国内生产总值(GDP)增长均为6.9%。两个6.9%都产生于经济新常态背景下,经济运行都处在合理区间内,但两个数据分别形成于“十二五”收官之年与供给侧结构性改革深化之年,发展条件和运行态势有所异同。前者是经济持续下行过程中市场预期较为悲观条件下形成的,更多反映出经济周期性回落、调速不失势;后者是经济企稳回升过程中市场信心增强条件下形成的,更多体现为经济恢复性反弹、量增质更优。总的来看,增速相同但形似神离,对应的经济结构和质量效益均存在差异,增长内涵不完全一样,当前这个6.9%的含金量更高。
一、二三产业结构不一样。实体经济加快向中高端迈进,产业结构不断调整优化,工业经济、服务经济占GDP的比重和对增长的贡献有所差异。前一个6.9%,产能过剩引发工业库存积压较重,工业生产萎缩,增加值增长仅6.0%,创近20年新低。服务业增长8.3%,明显快于GDP增速。工业和服务业占GDP的比重分别为34.3%和50.5%,对经济增长的贡献率分别为35.0%和53.7%。后一个6.9%,虽然去产能加快推动企业补库存,生产趋于活跃,工业增速回升,但现代物流、金融等生产性服务业加快拓展,健康养老等幸福产业和新兴服务竞相迸发,压低了工业经济的比重和贡献,服务业增加值占GDP的比重提高到54.1%,对经济增长的贡献率接近60%。服务经济引领发展趋势更加明显,已成为经济增长的主要动力。
二、三大需求贡献不一样。扩大有效需求成效积极,需求结构不断改善优化,投资、消费、出口三驾马车对经济增长的贡献存在差异。前一个6.9%,外需不振导致出口疲软,净出口对经济增长的贡献为负,消费发挥“稳定器”功能,投资稳增长的关键作用突出,资本形成总额对经济增长的贡献为41.6%。后一个6.9%,外需内需联动,世界经济形势总体趋好,出口连续下降局面得到扭转;虽然固定资产投资增速回落到个数,但补短板带动基础设施投资发力,转型升级提振制造业投资,有效投资呈稳步扩张态势;消费结构升级带动消费规模稳定扩张,个性化产品的消费需求增长迅猛,消费主引擎作用更加突显,最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献达到63.4%。政府、企业、居民三部门共同发力,三大需求趋向均衡,内需驱动经济发展特征更加明显。
三、区域经济差距不一样。地区经济分化中优化与恶化并存,东部、中部、西部和东北地区发展协调性不同。前一个6.9%,经济普遍下行中地区加剧分化,资源类、重化型产业密集省份经济出现大幅下滑,东北地区投资降幅超过双位数,与增速最高的中部地区相差26.9个百分点;省份间GDP增速最多相差达8个百分点。后一个6.9%,经济在分化中改善,东部、中部、西部地区经济增长率差距缩小,困难地区经济恶化局面得到遏制,东北地区工业增加值已实现转降为升,投资降幅大幅收窄。四大板块经济联动性互动性增强,区域经济发展更趋协调。
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