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特朗普欲终止“美韩自贸协定” 或于本周启动退出程序

2017-09-05 11:15:41   中国青年网

在特朗普政府表示有意修改美韩自贸协定之初,韩国就不同意。文在寅访美期间,也未就此议题达成一致。针对此次特朗普可能终止该协定的消息,韩联社9月4日报道称,若自贸协定终止,韩美两国将遭受巨大的经济损失,且美方损失将远超韩国。因为届时韩美两国贸易将遵循WTO规定的最惠国待遇关税率。美国对韩关税率为1.6%,韩国对美国的关税率至少为4%,美国企业的关税负担将远超韩企。陈凤英认为,韩国的说法有一定道理。自由贸易不是零和博弈,而是互利共赢,“互赢是你的逆差依然为企业创造了财富。某种形式上失利,但另一种形式上盈利,因为产业链和价值链不一样。所以韩国这么说也有道理,因为利润的收益方可能还在美国的跨国公司。我们一直认为全球化是互利的,只是分工不同而已,上、中、下游的关系。你可能在创新研发,我可能在生产,他可能在市场。”

韩国经济研究院分析称,若韩美双方调整关税税率,未来5年,韩国汽车、机械、钢铁等领域的出口额最多将损失170亿美元。其中,汽车产业的损失最大,预计达101亿美元。此外,韩国或将失去24万个就业岗位。韩国经济研究院1月报告显示,若韩美自贸协定终止,到2020年韩国出口预计将减少130亿美元。

中国国际问题研究院美国研究所所长滕建群认为,韩国不会对如此巨大的损失无动于衷,这一举动势必将在一定程度上影响韩美同盟关系,“特朗普上台以后,把朝鲜半岛作为对外政策的一个重要危机应对点。从2月初开始,美韩不断在这一地区举行大规模军事演习,关系互动也处在非常僵持的状态。如果再把经贸领域摆在美韩的桌面上,肯定会对两国同盟关系带来负面的影响。因为从韩国角度来说,美韩自贸协定是互利共赢的结果。从现在来看,美国特朗普政府如果拿贸易压韩国,韩国肯定会做出一系列自保的举措,包括在美韩关系、美韩军同盟上,韩国都有可能采取一种不合作的态度。所以对美韩关系,特别是安全上的合作会带来一定的影响。”

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