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专家:巴西是从金砖国家合作机制中获益最多的国家

2017-08-17 17:37:19   中国青年网

然而,可以确定地说,金砖国家合作机制在巴西外交政策中的地位将有所下降,并给金砖国家合作机制在第二个金色十年的转型升级带来一些变数和挑战。其中,最大的影响因素是特梅尔政府外交政策的再平衡。金砖国家合作机制是劳工党南南合作产物,而特梅尔政府认为这一政策是错误的,这在一定程度上动摇了巴西与金砖国家的合作基础。它们认为,劳工党的南南合作战略将所有筹码都放在了“西方的衰落”上,牺牲了巴西与发达国家的关系,特别是使巴西失去了美国这个最重要的市场。他们认为尽管美国和欧洲在衰落,但“美国仍是世界的领导者。与此同时,巴西与金砖国家,特别是中巴贸易受大宗商品价格下降影响出现回落,中国经济减速以及中巴经贸关系固有的合作与竞争关系,使巴西新政府对金砖国家合作机制的战略预期有所下降。其结果导致巴西外交政策的平衡及优先目标发生重大变化,即特梅尔政府不再将南南合作,而是将欧洲、美国和日本等传统合作伙伴作为优先合作伙伴。

从目前看,巴西新政府外交政策重心的转移对巴西与金砖国家合作的影响有两点:一是贸易谈判。巴西将谈判重心从以WTO为主导的多边贸易体制转向双边自由贸易谈判。其中,南方共同市场和欧盟的自由贸易协定将是一个起点。这与金砖国家倡导的推动开放的全球多边贸易体制的立场有些出入。二是可能影响巴西与金砖国家战略合作。在金砖国家合作机制进入第二个“金色十年之际”,金砖国家合作机制的转型升级也提上日程。其中一个目标是实现金砖国家政治及安全的新突破。巴西新政府与欧美在政治上的接近,甚至希望与美国保持结盟的关系,使巴西新政府更愿意将金砖国家合作机制定位在经济合作的层面,从而影响巴西与金砖国家的战略合作。特别是在美俄关系、中美博弈加大的情况下,巴西不希望金砖国家对美国主导的国际体系从软平衡转向硬平衡。此外,巴西目前出现的经济困难,也会影响巴西与金砖国家的合作。虽然巴西仍会留在金砖集团内,但活动会更弱化,有些计划可能会被评估,因为现在巴西根本没有资金来资助大型项目。打通金砖国家合作机制与“一带一路”倡议,加强二者之间的战略协作是金砖国家合作机制转型升级的目标之一。但由于缺少资金,巴西大幅减少了对亚投行(AIIB)股权的认购。2017年5月,巴西宣布对亚投行股权认购数量从2015年成为亚投行创始成员国时承诺的31.8万股(约31亿美元)到50股。

目前,巴西政治上面临很大的不确定性。现任总统特梅尔面临腐败案调查,能否完成任期仍是个未知数。7月12日,前总统卢拉因涉嫌贪腐和洗钱一审被判处九年六个月有期徒刑,这将对巴西政治发展及2018年总统大选产生重要影响。此外,反腐运动的不断扩大使巴西传统政党的政治精英们纷纷卷入腐败案。因此,巴西政治如何演变,哪个政党能在2018年总统选举中胜出,现在很难给出一个确切答案。这给预测巴西与金砖国家的合作增添了困难。但无论谁主政巴西,巴西外交重心做适度调整,从以金砖国家合作机制为轴心的南南合作向美欧传统伙伴适度倾斜在所难免。而调整的幅度将主要取决于金砖机制的进展,看它究竟能否给巴西带来更多的利益,满足巴西的战略需求和期待。

(本文选自《当代世界》2017年第8期)

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