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东盟主导的RCEP若达成,将形成一个人口约30亿、GDP总和约21万亿美元、占世界贸易总量约30%的贸易集团,并可能促成更大范围亚太自贸区的实现。
过去10年,东盟是全球经济发展最快的地区之一。未来,东盟将进一步发挥自身优势,其经济影响力和市场潜力将不断增大。
中银香港高级经济研究员王春新认为,东盟未来将有几大发展重点:共同市场建设、基础设施建设、产能和贸易合作、金融市场合作。在金融市场合作方面,东盟银行一体化建设将取得进展。
面临挑战
东盟各国在文化、经济发展等方面存在差异,共同体建设不会一蹴而就。
马来西亚前驻华大使马吉德认为,推进一体化和互联互通是东盟未来两大任务,推进一体化将是“一个缓慢过程”。一些东盟国家把民族利益放在首位,因此一体化过程将是逐步的、缓慢的。
“但对东盟而言,这是好事。如果一体化太快了,裂痕就会出现,一体化的步伐应令所有东盟国家感到舒适。因为,无论是在文化还是经济发展方面,东盟各国都差异很大。”马吉德说。
张学刚认为,东盟一体化面临的挑战包括:东盟内部发展差距较大,各国政治体制、宗教文化差异较大,近年“街头政治”和恐怖主义带来不少挑战,一些域外大国挑动东盟与周边国家关系不睦、欲分化和弱化东盟,跨国犯罪、网络金融犯罪等非传统安全挑战日益凸显。(参与记者:战艳、袁梦晨、林昊、董成文、陈健)
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