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首访非中国:尼泊尔新总理变卦

2016-01-12 09:16:56   观察者网

尼泊尔与印度或已达成协议

事实上,在塔帕外长在机场做出上述表态之前,尼泊尔总理奥利本人曾表示要在2016年4月中旬之前访问印度和中国两国。消息人士称,尼印边界禁运问题一旦解决,奥利就会访问印度。《印度时报》报道原文题目是“尼泊尔总理奥利将访问中国,很可能冷落印度?”,不知何故转译为中文后,成为肯定的表述:尼新总理“打破常规”首访去中国。应该说印度媒体的解读也还是留有余地的,至少没有如中文媒体如此肯定,而是打了个问号,尚不属于过度解读,只是中文媒体推波助澜而已。

尼泊尔与印度此前交恶,直接的原因是印度借特莱平原马德西族群抗议一事,干涉尼泊尔内政,并对其进行封锁。2015年12月20日,尼泊尔内阁通过修改宪法的决议,以回应马德西族群的主要诉求。内容包括以按比例包容的原则参与国家机构,按人口划分选区,联邦省的划分也将以政治共识为基础通过适当安排予以解决,包括公民权在内的其他要求也将通过谈判达成共识解决。

虽然特莱马德西各党派依然没有接受,抗议到目前为止已经持续四个多月,死亡50多人,但印度政府21日立即对尼政府的妥协表示欢迎,认为“这些决定是积极步骤”,可以为解决尼泊尔当前的僵局创造一个基础。

印度“ZeeNews”电视台网站报道,2015年12月31日印度总理莫迪与尼泊尔总理奥利举行长达20分钟的电话交谈,敲定奥利将在赴中国访问之前,先访问印度。另据《加德满都邮报》报道,2016年1月2日印度外交部主管尼泊尔事务的阿布依·塔库尔(Abhay Thakur)访问加德满都,主要目的就是讨论印度对尼泊尔的禁运。虽然阿布依·塔库尔在加德满都谈了什么没有见诸报端,但可以肯定的是两国达成了某种协议,应该就是印度解除封锁,奥利启程访印。这样,奥利平息了国内抗议声浪,解决了马德西抗议造成的尼印边界封锁危机,印度则安抚了国会议员们因对尼外交失败而产生的质疑与抱怨。

对于尼印两国而言,印度的封锁实际上造成了双输的局面。印度感觉到对尼泊尔援助巨大,但是作为小弟的尼泊尔居然对印度的建议置之不理。尼泊尔则感到,面对印度的制裁,生存已然成为问题。一贯以人权卫道士自居的西方社会,竟然也都对印度赤裸裸地以经济封锁干涉尼泊尔保持缄默。

印度对尼泊尔的封锁,导致尼泊尔反印情绪高涨,尼印关系紧张。印度外长斯瓦拉杰,以及曾在尼泊尔新宪法颁布前夕作为莫迪特使访问尼泊尔施压的印度外交秘书苏杰生,也不得不在印度议会面对议员们的质询和责难。议员们还特别要求苏杰生澄清关于尼泊尔总理首访中国而不是印度的传言。因此,印度与尼泊尔达成和解,是符合双方利益的。

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