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下半年经济增速或延续平稳走势 物价维持低位

2017-06-26 04:48:29   经济参考报

原标题:下半年经济增速或延续平稳走势

时至6月,棋至中局,市场机构纷纷对下半年的经济运行进行预判。《经济参考报》记者综合多方预测,由于一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增速超预期上涨,抬高了全年经济增长中枢,尽管下半年或现小幅回落,但全年来看将延续平稳走势,增速或为6.7%。物价方面,全年将保持低位运行。投资方面,下半年机遇与压力并存,企业效益改善提高了投资能力和投资预期,但房地产调控的政策效应继续释放,对房地产投资增速的不利影响将逐步显现。

趋稳全年经济增长保持韧性

多家机构预测,尽管今年二季度中国经济增速不会像一季度那样超预期,但仍会保持相当强的韧性,这种平稳走势会延续至今年全年。

中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院等机构此前发布的《中国宏观经济分析与预测(2017年中期)》预测,2017年上半年,我国GDP为180683亿元,GDP实际增速6.9%,比上年同期和全年均提高0.2个百分点。在假定财政赤字率3%、汇率7%的水平上,以及在国际经济复苏和国内政策叠加的基础上,2017全年GDP增速可达6.7%。

招商证券首席宏观分析师谢亚轩也预计全年GDP增速为6.7%,他认为,一季度GDP增速超预期上涨抬高了全年经济增长中枢水平,但这之后经济将会出现小幅回落,考虑到金融监管的严厉态度超出预期,消费保持稳定但缺乏弹性,无法完全对冲投资波动对经济形势的边际影响,而出口改善也难以化解投资波动的负面影响。

“预计下半年经济增长将彰显‘韧性’,实际GDP增速保持在6.8%。”中金公司研究部负责人梁红则更有信心,认为下半年中国经济的内需将稳健增长,并叠加外需的进一步复苏。而海通证券首席经济学家姜超则认为,未来经济增长将受到高基数效应的制约,年内经济同比增速的高点大概率已经出现。

值得一提的是,作为经济监测的先行指标,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)已经连续8个月位于51.0%以上的扩张区间。中国物流信息中心分析师陈中涛表示,PMI显示企业整体生产经营形势良好,这一方面得益于宏观经济环境持续稳定向好,市场改善,另一方面得益于政策利好。

国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群指出,PMI连续位于扩张区间表明经济增长走稳态势进一步明确。综合研判,经济增长正由短期冲高回落态势转为总体趋稳态势。

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