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经合组织:中国经济未来6至9个月增势强劲

2017-09-15 13:07:03   参考消息网

核心提示:中国综合先行指标持续增长,自3月份以来已累计上涨0.9,涨幅位于主要经济体榜首,表明未来6到9个月经济增长依然强劲。

参考消息网9月15日报道 经济合作与发展组织9月7日发布,与6月相比,发达国家与新兴市场国家7月经济综合先行指标大部分实现增长,表明世界经济回稳复苏态势稳定。其中,中国综合先行指标持续增长,自3月份以来已累计上涨0.9,涨幅位于主要经济体榜首,表明未来6到9个月经济增长依然强劲。发达经济体则出现分化,美国、欧盟、日本、德国、英国7月综合先行指标与3月相比分别持平、上涨0.2、上涨0.1、上涨0.4、下降0.2;新兴经济体中,印度和俄罗斯分别上涨0.3和下降0.2。

据印度《金融快报》网站9月13日报道,经合组织数据显示,印度经济在商品与服务税法案引发的震动过后好转。

印度国内生产总值(GDP)增速在本财年第一季度(今年4至6月)令人失望地降至5.7%,这导致印度在增长最快主要经济体排行榜上落后于中国。不过,现在印度似乎有理由欢呼,因为经合组织先行指标显示,印度经济不仅正在复苏,而且势头有所增强。但是,再一次令印度顽固的民族主义者失望的是,中国经济正以快得多的速度增长。

经合组织编制的综合先行指标显示,今年3月和4月放缓的印度经济在6月和7月有所复苏。3月和4月经济放缓显然是印度推出商品与服务税(GST)带来的不确定性所致。综合先行指标显示,印度的指标今年3月和4月降至99.39这一低点,随后数月有所反弹,7月增长势头加强,达到99.67。

与此同时,今年1月曾触及最低点98.98的中国指标在7月急剧上行,触及100点趋势线,在短短7个月内反弹1.1点。

尽管印度经济增长被认为正在加速,但与中国不同,印度的先行指标仍保持在100点趋势线以下。印度先行指标去年2月和3月曾触及趋势线。不过,数据显示,印度这一指标今年3月和4月很快开始下挫,降至过去两年的最低水平。

经合组织综合先行指标的100点基线代表着根据一个国家季度GDP估计值得出的经济活动趋势线。综合先行指标使用该方法表示经济活动围绕其长期潜在水平的波动。最新公布的综合先行指标为7月份的数据。

野村公司13日公布的一份研究报告也表示,随着印度企业在商品与服务税法案实施后重新开始进货,印度GDP增速可能加快。印度报业托拉斯援引野村公司的说法称:“总体而言,我们预计2017至2018财年(截至2018年3月)印度GDP年增长率为7.1%,毛附加价值(GVA)增长率为6.7%。”

责任编辑:高宗影 CN060
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