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气候变化对大豆产量的影响分析

2017-10-12 09:27:54   

不同生长阶段所需的水分和温度均有所差异

A 优良率同单产的关系

作物最终单产和早期优良率之间有没有直接的联系呢?通过分析历史数据,我们发现7月单产和优良率相关系数只有0.299,8月二者相关系数为0.490,进入9月,随着大豆生长期间各种不确定因素逐渐明朗,干扰因素下降,优良率对单产的解释效果较好,9月相关系数为0.780,10月相关系数达到0.837,优良率指标能较好解释单产。

对于单产而言,其实5月单产和最终单产从本质上来说没有较大区别。5—7月大豆刚播完还处于开花期,那时的单产数据主要由USDA下属机构世界农业展望局(WAOB)给出,WAOB有两套预估单产的模型,一套模型主要依据天气因素来预估单产,包括温度和降水量这两个参数;另一套模型根据种子技术调整来预估单产。而8月—次年1月的单产则是USDA的另一个下属机构国家农业统计服务局(NASS)给出的。两者最大的不同是WAOB是用模型预估,而NASS的报告数据则完全来自于田间的调查。这也是为什么通过7月优良率的变化来预估8月单产不太准确的根本原因。

图为单产与7月大豆优良率关系(单位:%,蒲/英亩)

图为单产与8月大豆优良率关系(单位:%,蒲/英亩)

图为单产与9月大豆优良率关系(单位:%,蒲/英亩)

B 降水对作物的影响

美国、巴西和阿根廷作为全球最主要的三个大豆生产和出口国,其天气变化往往是大豆市场投资者所重点关注的。下面我们来看看三个大豆生产国的大豆生长时间。

图为美国、巴西和阿根廷大豆生长时间

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