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持仓分析:期指多空分歧加大

2017-10-11 10:32:56   

国庆节后两个交易日期指表现较好,受央行定向降准影响,截至周二收盘,IF和IC加权指数分别上涨0.05%和0.60%,IH加权指数微幅下跌0.07%,对应的现货指数沪深300、上证50指数和中证500指数分别上涨0.20%、0.13%和0.41%,现货指数表现偏强。

从10月合约升贴水幅度来看,三组期指均转为升水结构,IF、IH和IC合约分别升水0.08%、0.11%和0.17%,显示市场对后市较为乐观,流动性有明显提升。

三组期指总成交量和持仓量均有明显增加,其中总成交量增加5084手至36425手,总持仓量增加3834手至96692手。IF和IH指数合约分别增加951手和577手,IC指数合约减少270手。成交量方面,IC指数合约大幅减少1053手,IH指数合约减少269手,而IF指数合约则增加671手,IF、IH、IC合约成交持仓比分别为0.37、0.41、0.36,市场流动性明显提升。

前20名、10名和前5名席位三组期指持仓量变化不一,其中IC指数多空减仓,IH指数多空增仓,而IF指数则出现分歧。具体来看,IC指数合约多空均减仓,且多头减仓力度明显大于空头,前20名多头减仓552手,空头则减少284手;IH指数多空均增仓,不过前5名多头增仓量小于空头增仓量,而前20名多头增仓598手远高于空头增仓183手;IF指数分歧明显,前5名和前10名多头分别增加71手和68手,而空头分别减少51手和218手,但前20名多头则减少11手,空头则增加176手。通过观察前5名大户持仓,除中信期货席位对于IF和IC指数呈现净空持仓外,其余均显示净多持仓,而IH指数则全部为净多单持仓,均呈现增加状态。

三组期指净持仓整体略偏空头,其中IH和IF指数显示净空头持仓,而IC指数前5名和前10名席位为净多单持仓,前20名为净空单持仓,增加268手至998手。

整体来看,市场流动性明显提升,主力对后市较为乐观。

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