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“旱情”缓解 节后资金面料继续修复

2017-09-29 07:32:52   

28日,央行重启逆回购操作,叠加财政库款继续投放、定向降准信息改善情绪,连日来的市场资金面紧张气氛有所缓和,货币市场利率呈现高位回落走势。市场人士指出,随着跨季跨节准备工作收尾,短期资金面压力最大的时候已过去,跨季后,市场利率或打开下行空间。

资金面紧张状况有所缓解

9月28日,央行重启逆回购操作,当日进行700亿元逆回购交易,足量对冲当日到期逆回购,终结了上周后半周以来的连续净回笼。虽没有净投放资金,但央行重启逆回购操作,仍显示了平抑市场利率波动的态度,有助于缓解短期市场紧张情绪。

28日,银行市场流动性波动趋缓,货币市场利率多现回落。债券质押式回购市场上,隔夜回购利率(DR001)续涨3.5BP至2.93%,但跨季跨节的7天、14天、21天和1个月回购利率分别下行15BP、7BP、6BP和23BP,回落较为明显。代表性的7天回购利率(DR007)重回3%以内,14天、21天资金价格也出现一定松动,显示出流动性边际趋缓的势头。

28日,交易所回购利率仍高,但从日内走势上看,除尾盘部分期限异动之外,全天多数时候都在收盘价下方运行,企稳迹象较为明显。截至当日收盘,上交所7天回购利率收于7.39%,全天加权平均价报6.786%,较上一日下行47BP.

交易员称,得益于央行重启逆回购操作和定向降准消息的提振,28日早盘货币市场情绪回暖,临近午盘大行开始融出跨季资金,价格也有所回落,资金面虽依旧偏紧,但较前几日有所改善;往后看,随着财政继续投放,而越来越多的机构已完成跨季准备,资金面形势有望继续好转。

流动性有望继续改善

本周以来,市场资金面紧张超出预期,但这种紧张主要还是结构性的,是季末流动性分层现象加剧所致,在财政投放的支持下,近期存款类机构流动性总体仍较为平稳。

中金公司研报指出,非银机构流动性较为紧张,而存款类金融机构流动性相对稳定的原因,一方面与季末MPA考核、超储偏低等因素有关;另一方面,定于10月1日起施行的“流动性新规”限制货币基金向非银产品的资金融出,部分基金内部风控已要求基金运作向新规的各项要求过渡,本周起便有基金逐步收紧了对非银的资金融出,也对非银资金拆借难度和利率产生较大影响。

中金公司分析师指出,“流动性新规”提高货币基金抵押品资质要求,非银产品抵押品大部分不能满足相关要求。而货币基金为非银产品主要资金来源,资金从银行到非银的传导更加不畅。另外,非银产品对此次流动性新规产生的冲击预期也不充分,多方面因素导致季末非银机构流动性紧张程度超出预期。

目前非银跨季工作基本收尾,短期资金面压力最大的时候已过去,跨季后,随着监管考核等影响消退,非银融资难度也将减轻,将为市场利率打开下行空间。10月初,流动性或进一步改善。

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