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“改革+成长”逻辑深化 四主线勾勒军工股投资路径

2017-09-26 07:22:55   中国经济网

经过前期的调整,受到市场风险偏好回升以及投资风格切换的影响,军工板块有所企稳。仅从昨日市场表现来看,军工板块盘中涨幅一度达到1%,尾盘受股指调整拖累有所下挫。个股方面,晨曦航空强势涨停,太阳鸟大涨6.8%,而爱乐达、雷科防务、中航机电、国睿科技、航天通信等个股涨幅也均在1%以上,分别为:4.68%、2.39%、1.57%、1.44%、1.34%。

资金流向方面,《证券日报》市场研究中心根据同花顺数据统计发现,昨日,14只军工股呈现大单资金净流入状态,合计大单资金净流入11654.71万元。其中,中直股份(2877.08万元)、晨曦航空(1936.46万元)、太阳鸟(1616.79万元)、爱乐达(1108.14万元)等个股大单资金净流入均在1000万元以上。

9月22日上午,中央军民融合发展委员会第二次全体会议召开。会议审议通过了《“十三五”国防科技工业发展规划》、《关于推动国防科技工业军民融合深度发展的意见》、《“十三五”期间推进军事后勤军民融合深度发展的实施意见》、《经济建设与国防建设密切相关的建设项目贯彻国防要求管理办法(试行)》,部署了当前和今后一个时期工作。

事实上,在“改革+成长”逻辑不断深化下,军工板块的投资机会已被越来越多的机构看好。天风证券认为,军工改革四热点方向包括:院所改制、空域管理体制改革、军品定价规则改革、装备采购制度改革,而这四项改革将为国防工业的后续良好发展提供沃土。院所改制加强盈利性军品资产的上市速度、空域管理放开利好民用航空产业、“定价机制改革”扭转军工盈利现状、以及装备采购制度的改革将促进民企参军,四大改革将全面推动2018年进入军工行业拐点。

国海证券表示,继续看好军工板块,维持“推荐”评级。主要基于以下四点:1.从短期来看,军工板块自年初以来整体跌幅为9%,目前板块已经企稳,未来将有较高的概率修复今年上半年的跌幅,进入反弹阶段;2.中期来看,军工板块的整体基本面逐渐趋向好转,主要得益于我国军用装备更新换代速度加快,加之军改步入尾声,在军工改革中受到影响的企业将恢复订单水平,营业收入能力将会重回正轨。3.长期来看,军工板块持续的优质资产注入与整合、科研院所改制、长期军费稳定投入等行业发展趋势向好。4.周边局势的变化将进一步提升军工板块的关注度。

由于军工板块敏感性较高,底部个股上涨预期较足,业内人士普遍认为,部分逻辑确定和估值合理的个股或将成为市场新的追逐点。统计显示,最近1个月内,有23只军工股备受机构看好,中直股份、四创电子、航发动力、航天电子等4只个股机构给予“买入”或“增持”等看好评级家数均在10家以上。

对于中直股份,国泰君安证券指出,由于主力机型进入平稳期,而新型直升机尚未量产,市场担心公司业绩增速持续放缓,但随着管理层调整和未来新机型陆续列装,公司将迎来“业绩+估值”双拐点。预计2017年至2018年每股收益分别为0.78元、1.03元,维持目标价54.4元,给予“增持”评级。

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