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持股过节 迎接节后红包行情的到来
2017-09-25 08:07:53 中国经济网
本周继续分析主板。首先看月线,行情终于在8月份拿下了重要的关口30月线后,进入9月份,出现了向30月线逐步回落,寻找支撑的走势,行情自5178以来,月级别行情最长的连阳最多就是三连阳,出现过三次:一次是2015年的10月,11月,12月;另一次是2016年的6月,7月,8月;最近的这次是3016点上升以来,2017年的6月,7月,8月也是三连阳,行情自5178点以来,还没出现过四连阳,最多三连阳,之后第四个月往往是月阴线,而目前的9月份刚好是3016上升以来的第4个月,所以本月大概率月线要收阴,在月线收阴的预期下,本月出现震荡调整就是预期内会出现的走势。月线总体仍然是中线向上趋势,所以9月的回踩是一次低吸机会。
再来看周线,本周值得注意的一点就是周五收盘位于3352,已经跌破5周线,跌破5周线,意味着下周低点会比本周更低,不过也跌不深,预计会在周线工作线3326或者连接2016年4月高点3097与2016年8月高点3140连线对应的3310受到支撑,此位置刚好与10周线3313吻合,因此,从周线看3326、3313是两道强支撑,往下调整空间不大。这波调整结束后,行情还会向2016年8月高点3140与2016年12月高点3301连线对应的3800附近运行,往下调整空间有限,往上空间是广阔无垠,所以调整就是低吸机会。
再来看日线,行情只有再次站稳生命线3370,才能重返上升趋势,在这之前,总体是震荡整理走势,回落30日线3341附近是最近的支撑,本周五的调整已经到达30日线附近,预计下周一就会反弹,反弹的力度就是能否收复3370,收复3370附近,就有可能再次冲击3400附近,反之,无力收复3370,或者利空打压,震荡中,有可能会跌破30线,向下面的60线附近寻求支撑,随着时间的推移,60日线也将逐步上升到3300附近,往下空间均不大。预计本月月K线会收阴,国庆节前总体仍然是震荡走势,差别在于震荡的振幅的大小,节前的震荡是低吸机会,可低吸过节,迎接节后红包行情的到来。
综合结论:1)行情中线没有见顶问题,震荡后,还将向3600、3800进发;2)预计9月份月线收阴,节前总体是震荡走势,节前的震荡刚好是低吸机会,参考3341、3326、3313附近低吸,可持股过节,迎接节后红包行情的到来。(喻红星,资深市场人士)
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