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节前延续短线调整 不宜加大个股持仓比重

2017-09-25 07:37:52   中国经济网

上周市场涨跌交错,沪指盘中回探刷新月内调整新低。场内热点持续匮乏,多空争夺也日趋平静,使得两市量能同步缩减。临近节前的一个交易周,短线资金维持市场活跃度有限,沪指在短期内缺失热点和量能维系,变盘调整的风险压力依然存在,加之节前资金面常规趋紧,预计沪指回踩中期均线几率增大,节前操作谨慎观望,半仓之下防御为主。

盘面显示,上周市场热点单一,概念股活跃、周期股回调。两市以通信、5G概念股表现突出,沪弱深强的市场格局之下,金融股盘中对指数有所维护,但力度难抵周期股回调压力,两市在存量资金维持下虽然没有出现热点缺失的窘境,但也从未真正形成做多合力的共振,这使得沪指在上周整体表现为涨跌互现的盘整格局。场内资金的风险偏好具有明显倾向性,上周后半周市场的活跃品种,更多出现在酒店餐饮、食品饮料等防御性品种的走强,此外创业板综指、次新股出现一定程度的反弹,这些都显示出短线资金波段参与的要求,在于补涨行情短时期内求稳意图的明显,因而,市场需要以其内在调整完成对前期浮筹的清洗。

进入本周临近国庆长假,内外围不确定变因有所提升。结合市场基本面环境考虑,三季度经济数据回落,节前流动性预期不乐观,均从中短期因素上制约了投资者的情绪。此外,前期沪指冲关3300点后始终欠缺合理的调整,获利盘的抛压并未完全释放,市场堆积的短期不利因素,更容易触发变盘风险的聚集。结合技术走势观察,沪指日K线显示,指数顺势调整有所回稳,但盘中弹升力度有限,沪指短期均线尽失,调整压力及对8月末下跳缺口回补要求存在共同作用,短期内市场变盘风险依然存在。周K线显示,沪指回档5周均线,但同期量能萎缩,惜售情绪影响下指数盘中回撤空间也将较为有限。

总体看,两市差异表现、中小创走势分化,当前市场以结构性调整为主。在热点未见明确突显之前,存量维持的市场格局,仍将以时间换空间完成整理,预计沪指10周均线3300点上方维持窄幅震荡。整体操作谨慎观望为主,节前不宜加大个股持仓比重。

本周趋势看跌

中线趋势看平

本周区间 3300-3360点

本周热点酿酒、食品饮料、酒店旅游

本周焦点成交量

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