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A股目前处于“弱增量”阶段

2017-09-22 07:37:26   中国经济网

本周的前4个交易日,大盘继续窄幅震荡,创业板略有回调。指数方面,上证综指4个交易日累计上涨了0.12%,深证成指则累计上涨了0.32%,上证50累计上涨了0.27%,沪深300累计上涨了0.17%,中小板指较为强势,累计上涨了1.11%,创业板指小幅回调,累计下跌了0.15%。从主要指数表现来看,大盘正在酝酿对3400点整数关口发起冲击。

本周四,盘面热点匮乏,题材股普遍低迷,个股跌多涨少。芯片题材依旧活跃,通富微电、江丰电子双双二板涨停。上海国改股午后异动,上海临港、徐家汇大涨。特斯拉概念股复苏,天汽模直线封板。利好消息刺激燃料电池板块爆发,雪人股份涨停,江苏阳光涨停板被撬开。5G概念股崛起,中国联通涨近4%,武汉凡谷涨停,邦讯技术一度涨停。锂电池板块全军覆没,江特电机跌停,红星发展、雅化集团、西藏矿业、横店东磁等多股逼近跌停。有色金属回调明显,炼石有色、章源钨业、神火股份跌逾5%。

流动性方面,广发证券研究显示,上周A股市场资金净流入107亿元。其中,一级市场IPO融资38.3亿元;产业资本上周重要股东净减持6.3亿元,二级市场上,上周合计流入资金151.5亿元,其中,机构投资者资金流入37.0亿元,杠杆资金流入178.7亿元,沪深港股通资金流出23亿元,交易费61.9亿元。投资者情绪方面,上周融资交易占比10.5%,日度换手率0.9%,股指期货多/空比例72.4%,机构合计挂单卖出644.9亿元。

近一段时间以来,沪深两市两融余额快速上升,距离万亿大关只有咫尺之遥。但另一方面,无论是上证指数、上证50还是创业板指,整体都处于调整状态。从当前的情况来看,市场还是存在存量博弈的因素,以9月21日的市场表现为例,金融股特别是银行股一旦上涨,其他个股就会出现比较明显的下跌。市场距离彻底打破存量博弈格局仍然有一段距离。另一方面,沪深两市3369只个股中,9月份以来仍然有接近1400只个股出现下跌,跌幅在5%以上的也有接近300只。

另一方面,从投保基金发布的《2017年8月中国证券市场投资者信心调查分析报告》来看,8月份买入指数为52.2,较7月(45.9)大幅上升13.7%。这是该指数自去年12月跌破中性值之后首次重返50以上,显示投资者买入意愿明显改善。数据显示,8月份以来股市流动性改善,机构投资者(基金发行)、个人投资者(杠杆资金、新增投资者数量)、海外资金(沪股通、深股通、QFII、RQFII)均有明显净流入,仅产业资本净增持的金额有所下降。不考虑证券交易结算的影响,8月新增资金流入约1067亿元,7月该数值仅为108.68亿元。

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