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李迅雷:目前股市处于“春”的阶段

2017-09-20 07:42:05   中国经济网

中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷19日在第十一届指数与指数化投资论坛上表示,目前股票市场处于“春”的阶段,应该可以耕耘布局,捕捉机会。李迅雷是依据被称为“中泰时钟”的研究模型,得出这一结论的。

据李迅雷介绍,“中泰时钟”是在著名的“美林时钟”的基础上,结合国内的实际情况,增加考量维度和指标后形成的资产配置模型。“中泰时钟”将股市走势分为“春、夏、秋、冬”四个时段,并对目前股市维持“春”的阶段判断。

李迅雷根据统计和量化分析,得出几个颇有启发性的结论。一是做短期投资要跑赢市场难度大。二是对行业股、概念股,题材股等,需要去伪存真。统计显示,过去十年来表现最好的十个行业是网络安全、互联网金融、网络游戏、在线教育、智慧医疗、智能电视、文化传媒、大数据、第三方支付、云计算,其共同特征就是属于技术革新概念。而表现比较差的十大概念,比如页岩气、丝绸之路、新疆区域振兴、广东国资改革等,概念因素比较大,缺乏技术含量。三是要打破高成长的神话。统计分析表明,从2006年至2016年十年间,连续五年盈利增速20%以上的,只占整个样本数的1.2%;连续四年盈利增长达到20%的也不过2.9%,连续三年的是6.4%。总体来讲,连续三年以上盈利增速能保持在20%以上的,占所有上市公司的比重只不过10%左右。十年里维持持续增长的上市公司非常稀缺,大部分公司盈利波动非常大。另外,统计还显示,A股市场的另一个特点是,真正拉大盈利差距的是小市值股票。

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