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践行价值投资必须去伪存真

2017-09-22 07:22:04   中国经济网

■ 袁钢

在3400点关前,尽管指数显得谨小慎微,之前引领大盘稳步上行的“漂亮50”大多数也处于整理中,但个股行情却“纸”手可热、“煤”飞色舞、吃“药”喝“酒”,热闹非凡,大有有“锂”走遍天下之势,市场展现出较为明显的结构性特征。

去年下半年以来,在监管层的大力引导下,倡导价值投资越来越成市场共识,主力机构抱团“漂亮50”,对市场炒作风格也起到了很强的引导作用。可以说,两年前的股市波动得以平息,A股一只脚上踏上价值投资这条道,既得益于此。对于经历了2015年股市波动的投资者来说,目前的行情可谓来之不易,而题材股的炒作尽管有利于提振市场人气,制造赚钱效应,但是如果巧立名目,打着“创新”旗号来蛊惑市场,则又将酿成一出悲剧。因此,践行价值投资,更需要在行情初期去伪存真,行情才可能健康发展。

近期发布的宏观数据,引发了机构对于宏观经济的高度关注,也使一度趋淡的有关中国经济周期的辩论再度升温。对于“新周期”一说,反对者称最新数据已证伪,支持者却认为短期扰动影响有限。不论最终结果如何,“新周期”这场受到业内广泛关注的大辩论,也许还会持续下去。而前不久,在2017北京CBD国际金融圆桌会议上,证监会副主席姜洋就已经指出:金融创新是一把双刃剑。一方面,通过金融产品、组织、制度和技术创新,可以提升金融资源配置的效率,为实体经济发展注入活力;另一方面,如果金融创新脱离了实体经济内在需要,规避监管,盲目扩张,大搞资金体内循环和脱实向虚,则容易引发金融风险,反过来阻碍实体经济的发展。

其实,题材股的炒作在任何股市里都是一个必然存在,在A股市场,题材股的火爆引发了一个“‘创蓝筹’会否接棒‘漂亮50’”的话题。所谓“创蓝筹”,是指业绩较好、估值较低、市值较大,同时具有一些题材和成长性支持的中小创股票。从这一层面来看,不管后市热点由“漂亮50”主导还是“创蓝筹”主导,仍在价值投资范畴之内,对行情的推进并无坏处。而上半年那批被称之为“要命3000”的中小创股票,股价仍处于低迷中,至今也少有人问津,表明了投资者对绩差股的态度,价值投资理念已逐步深入人心。

总体上看,在宏观经济保持稳定的背景下,股市稳步回升有了基本面支撑,由价值投资驱动的结构性慢牛行情或许才刚刚开始。而在市场炒作中,只要不挂羊头卖狗肉、恶炒绩差股,不偏离价值投资这一主线,一场优势企业价值投资的盛宴就将为市场开启。

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