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上市公司蓝皮书:信用收缩下的“安全资产”价值重现

2017-09-20 14:27:14   中国经济网

文/新华网 何凡

“三期叠加”的中国经济新常态下,究竟哪些上市公司价值创造能力突出,成为各个行业的佼佼者,并在资本市场为各路投资者所青睐?

9月19日,中国社科院经济研究所、中国社科院上市公司研究中心和社会科学文献出版社联合发布的《中国上市公司蓝皮书:中国上市公司发展报告(2017)》指出,2016年以来,“安全资产”越来越得到投资者的青睐。曾在一段时间被投资者忽视的优质大盘蓝筹资产正成为资本市场的宠儿,也使市场价值投资理念逐步被践行,使市场远离投机和炒作之风,让越来越多优质资产得到市场认可。

企业业绩回升 服务与周期行业皆有表现

蓝皮书称,宏观经济改善带来了上市公司业绩回升,主要表现在五方面:

一是上游产业利润大幅度提升,如钢铁、化工、有色金属等行业,这直接受益于供给侧结构性改革,加大淘汰落后产能力度,市场集中度进一步提高;

二是消费增长平稳,升级倾向强烈,消费升级和服务业需求依然强劲,“喝酒吃药”行情本质上代表了消费品质升级,海外上市的大量互联网游戏、直播和教育培训、医疗服务业则更显出中国消费升级的方向;

三是持续的城市化推动了汽车和耐用消费品的更新换代,持续的技术优势是竞争的关键;

四是具有生产和生活要素配置功能的服务行业发展很快,突出的是五大物流公司的上市,传统的金融服务业保持增长,促使了要素配置服务业发展;

五是城市化和跨区域发展推动的地产和政府布局的基础设施建设相关公司利润增长非常快。

 信用收缩不可避免 资产配置如何转变

中国社科院上市公司研究中心主任张平表示,信用收缩既有来自国内的“严监管”带来的“顺周期”调节效应,也有美国加息周期的被动影响.

在他看来,信用收缩已经不可避免,并必然导致资产配置出现相应转变:

1、消费升级类股票依然最具韧性;

2、银行、保险的资产配置属于安全资产配置;

3、成长源于科技和新市场驱动的公司依然可得到更高估值,但更集中于龙头企业,即已经成长为有规模的企业;

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