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5G板块迎布局时机 四类股投资价值凸显

2017-09-22 07:07:13   中国经济网

■本报记者 任小雨

9月15日,中国兵器工业集团公司总经理、党组副书记温刚,副总经理曾毅到中国移动通信集团公司调研,参观中国移动位于北京的5G试验外场,并与中国移动相关负责人进行了座谈。座谈会上,双方介绍了各自集团的相关情况,并就下一步可能合作的业务进行交流,表示将进一步加强联系,深化合作。

5G是互联网和新经济最重要的基础设施之一,受到了管理层高度重视。在8月24日,国务院再次发文力推信息消费升级,规划到2020年信息消费规模达到6万亿元,力争到2020年5G商用,推进物联网基础设施建设。另外,近日,中国信通院发布《5G经济社会影响白皮书》,到2030年,5G将带动我国直接经济产出6.3万亿元,经济增加值2.9万亿元。同时在间接贡献方面,5G将带动总产出10.6万亿元、经济增加值3.6万亿元。

对此,国泰君安认为,目前,全球正加速5G建设,我国具备领跑5G的三大要素(资金、技术、产业政策),有着显著的先发优势,加速发展5G成为必然。相较于4G架构,5G新架构将使得光纤光缆(3倍-4倍)、光器件、基站(2倍)的需求呈爆发式增长,相关厂商业绩弹性较大。从历史经验可以发现,最佳布局时点也会出现在第四季度至明年之间,而三季报业绩超预期的龙头标的有望迎跨年度行情,值得关注。

业绩方面,《证券日报》市场研究中心根据同花顺数据统计发现,在61家相关上市公司中,2017年中报归属母公司净利润实现同比增长的公司达到39家,占比65%。此外,截至昨日,已有23家5G类公司披露三季报业绩预告,业绩预喜公司有13家,占比近六成。其中,日海通讯(444.55%)、北纬科技(155.75%)和国脉科技(130%)等3家公司预计2017年三季报归属母公司净利润同比翻番。

受多重利好刺激下,昨日,5G板块表现抢眼,其板块整体逆市上涨0.36%,板块内近五成个股实现上涨,其中,中通国脉、武汉凡谷实现涨停,邦讯技术大涨7.95%,富春股份(4.65%)、三元达(3.86%)、广和通(3.84%)、中国联通(3.74%)、共进股份(3.15%)等个股当日涨幅也较为居前。

对于板块的后市机会,包括国泰君安、国信证券、海通证券、海通证券等在内的多家券商发布研报表示看好5G产业链的投资机会。其中,海通证券则表示,国内和全球的5G网络建设有望加速,整体市场空间也将快速打开,5G将释放万亿元市场空间。

国泰君安表示,在政策驱动下,关注四类价值股后市机会。首先,主设备厂商,建议关注中兴通讯;2.需求将有确定性增长的光通信细分行业,关注亨通光电、中天科技、烽火通信、中际装备、光迅科技;3.借力产业升级,重塑市场格局的专网通信,关注海能达、亿联网络;4.密切关注工业4.0相关弹性受益标的:东土科技、佳讯飞鸿等。

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