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需求强劲 菜油延续反弹

2017-09-20 09:42:26   中国经济网

随着双节临近,菜油需求强劲,库存逐渐降低。预计短期内菜油期货仍将维持偏强格局。

国内新菜籽产量减少

有关数据显球,2017年全国菜籽产量预估为340万—350万吨,同比减少近10%。湖南、湖北是中国油菜籽的主要产区,每年产量约占全国总产量的20%—30%。

有关数据显示,湖北、湖南菜籽产量均出现不同程度的下降。其中,湖北地区产量为60万吨左右,同比减少20%;湖南地区产量约10万吨,同比减少17%。

港口菜籽菜油库存稳定

截至9月15日当周,国内沿海进口菜籽总库存增加至43.45万吨,较上周的39.4万吨增加4.05万吨,增幅10.28%,但较去年同期的42.75万吨减少1.64%。其中,两广及附近地区库存较去年同期减少25.17%。据有关机构对近三个月菜籽进口数量的跟踪预计,6月到港53.5万吨,7月40.3万吨,8月36.9万吨,整体上沿海菜籽库存压力不大。同时,两广及福建地区菜油库存近期一直维持在10万—13万吨。

抛储压力逐渐释放

前期抛储菜油是压制国内盘面的主要因素。2016/2017年度国内共进行了12次储备油抛储,先后抛储累计207.9万吨。据不完全统计,目前储备油剩余125万吨甚至更少,较2015年的储备油库存量562万吨有较大幅度的回落。

据了解,目前除中粮、益海等一些大企业之外,其他油厂菜油库存均比较少,而且油厂、贸易商并不急于出库,对后市看涨信心较足。此外,对于剩余的100多万吨菜油,国家将不再进行全面抛储,全部留给中储粮自行消化。因此,抛储油对盘面造成的压力正在逐步缓解。

总之,在供应压力逐渐减小而需求强劲的背景下,菜油期货有望维持反弹行情。技术上,6月以来菜油期货盘面保持上涨趋势,盘中虽有反复,但总体趋势不变。操作上,建议多单坚定持有,逢回调可逐步买入。

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