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部分消费贷或暗中涌向房地产市场

2017-09-21 07:02:04   中国经济网

多家A股上市银行的数据显示,其上半年住房按揭贷款增速回落,新增房贷占个人贷款的比重也较去年末有所下降。与此同时,居民消费性短期贷款在今年前七个月的增量已经超过去年全年。业内人士表示,在房贷业务缩水的情况下,银行有加快发力消费贷款等其他收益更高的零售业务的动力,不过,对于部分消费贷款变相涌向房地产市场的风险需警惕。

从上市银行日前发布的中报数据来看,多家银行已经逐步放缓了房贷投放节奏。以五大行为例,工行、农行、中行、建行和交行的个人住房贷款今年上半年增速分别为11.6%、11.6%、9.28%、9.50%和8.56%。其中,中行上半年个人住房贷款同比下降7.7个百分点,农行同比增速则回落21.2个百分点。

除此之外,截至今年上半年,多家银行新增房贷占个人贷款的比重较去年末有所下降。截至上半年末,中信银行个人房贷余额4825亿元,增长占全部个人贷款增量的比重较上年减少16.6个百分点;兴业银行个人住房及商用房贷款占个人贷款比重较去年末下降了0.26个百分点;浦发银行个人房贷余额5096亿元,占全部个人贷款的比重较去年末降低3.62个百分点。

在住房贷款新增量趋缓的同时,上半年银行的房贷利率呈现上行趋势。融360此前报告显示,7月全国首套房平均利率为4.99%,相当于基准利率1.02倍,环比上升2.25%,同比去年7月的4.44%上升了12.38%。二套房方面,在全国35个城市533家银行中,422家银行执行基准利率上浮10%,执行基准利率上浮15%的有10家,上浮20%的有67家,较上月增加31家,10家银行执行基准利率上浮30%,仅四家银行执行基准利率。

今年以来,国家对房地产领域执行严格的调控政策,银行房贷业务“量缩价升”在情理之中。不过值得注意的是,在房贷增量放缓的同时,银行消费类贷款则持续快增。业内人士表示,在房贷业务受限的情况下,银行有加快发力消费贷款等其他收益更高的零售业务的动力,这也符合不少银行加快零售业务转型的目标。

恒丰银行研究院执行院长、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院客座研究员董希淼在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,虽然部分银行个人贷款中房贷比例下降较快,但同时消费类贷款上升较快,不排除有一部分消费贷款变相涌向房地产市场的可能。与此同时,一些互联网金融平台的资金也有很大可能进入了房地产市场。

海通证券宏观首席分析师姜超在研报中称,2017年前七个月,居民新增消费性短期贷款1.06万亿元,累计同比多增7137亿元,而去年全年仅新增消费性短期贷款8305亿元。他表示,短期消费性贷款的爆发式增长可能与地产销售密不可分。地产销售仍在增长,但去年下半年以来银行房贷额度逐渐受限,部分居民购房贷款或借道短期消费贷款完成,导致居民短贷的高增长。

业内人士表示,尽管房贷增速已经回落,但是监管层对投机性购房的金融需求仍需持续密切关注和严控。“银行需要持续地打击投资性需求,切断这方面的金融供给。”董希淼说。

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