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基本面改善 PP有望止跌

2017-09-20 09:37:14   中国经济网

PP期货主力合约1801在7—8月的传统淡季最高上冲至9805元/吨,较5月中旬的低位大幅上涨近2500元/吨。随着9月合约进入交割月,以及前期超涨导致的价差体系内估值偏好,PP期货出现了较为明显的获利回吐走势。截至9月中旬,PP1801合约回调幅度接近1000元/吨。我们认为,短期内PP将弱势振荡来消化9月的仓单压力,但下跌空间仍相对有限,后期有望在库存低位以及终端需求良好的带动下企稳反弹。

供应保持在偏低水平

9月初,宁夏宝丰、河北海伟、镇海炼化装置因故障临时停车检修导致国内PP装置开工率大幅下滑,国内PP产量仍处在相对偏低水平。

图为PP下游企业开工率

进口市场方面,近几年随着国内PP产能不断投放,PP进口依存度不断降低。一季度,因国内PP大涨且内外盘正挂,造成PP进口量巨量增加。随后由于PP价格回落,且内外倒挂程度加剧,进口量同比环比逐步下滑。尽管6—8月国内PP价格出现较大幅度的上涨,但PP一直保持内外盘倒挂状态,对应PP进口量将季节性回升,但同比延续下滑的概率偏大。因此,不论是国产量和进口量,PP总体供应量将保持在偏低水平。

下游将迎来季节性旺季

今年国家环保严查对化工品下游市场需求产生了一定的影响,但根据调研,环保对化工品终端市场的严查并未影响到终端总需求的减少,只是出现了中小工厂关闭后的订单转移至中大型工厂。这意味着环保对塑料制品终端企业的硬约束,使得终端订单向大厂集中,没有了中小塑料制品厂的恶性竞争,PP下游中大型制品企业有更好的市场定价权,对上游原料成本转嫁能力增强。

展望后市,PP在7—8月淡季涨价并未受到终端用户的积极跟涨,多是随用随买操作为主,本身原料备货库存不高,接下来临近国庆中秋双节需求旺季,PP下游企业订单量逐步增加,对应下游装置开工率将季节性回升。在原材料价格下跌后,企业会进行大量的原料补库,进而对PP市场形成较大的支撑力。

截至9月15日当周,国内PP库存环比增加8.66%,其中石化企业库存、港口库存上升,贸易商库存下降。主要原因是期价转跌,代理商放慢采购速度,石化库存在装置开工率低位下继续增加。贸易商库存下降,期价下跌后,贸易商出货意向增加,补仓积极性不高。总体来看,当前PP总体库存水平处在中等偏低水平。另外,根据调研,下游企业对应的原料库存水平也不高,因此,受现货供应保持低位以及终端需求补库支撑,现货市场价格下跌空间不大。

操作策略

综合以上分析,9月上半月PP向下运行属于正常范畴内的调整,从调整幅度和空间来看,我们倾向于本轮调整已经接近尾声,后期在供应偏紧以及需求旺季来临之际,PP或止跌回升,对应1801合约价格运行区间在8600—9400元/吨,投资者可在此区间内做好低吸高抛操作。

具体投资策略:1801合约8600—8900元/吨区间逢低买入,止损位8550元/吨,目标位9200—9500元/吨。

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