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华商基金张博炜:经济数据短期脉冲利好周期股
2017-09-18 11:21:45 中国经济网
9月9日,国家统计局发布经济数据显示,8月全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)双双上涨。其中,CPI同比上涨1.8%,环比上涨0.4%;PPI同比上涨6.3%,环比上涨0.9%。
“受原油反弹、环保督查带来的供给收缩影响,最新的价格数据出现超预期反弹。”华商基金策略研究员张博炜对此分析认为,后续CPI的走势判断将相对谨慎,CPI继续维持当前水平附近震荡的概率较高。
在具体的投资建议上,华商基金张博炜认为,9月陆续公布的经济数据或将明显提升市场对于周期股的风险偏好,周期股当前仍处于较好的做多时间窗口之中,对于冲击成本较小的产品仍有一定的操作空间。
另悉,央行自9月11日开始将境内金融机构代客远期售汇业务所需提取的外汇风险准备金率从20%调整为0。在此之前,央行曾于2015年10月就抑制远期结汇行为的投机化特征,对金融机构的远期售汇业务收取20%的外汇风险准备金。
“整体上,这一操作反应出在当前人民币对美元持续升值、贬值预期明显弱化的背景下,央行对前期市场干预行为的有序退出。这种退出一方面有助于修正当前人民币单边升值的预期,一方面在未来再次出现过快贬值的极端情况时,提前预留出一定的政策空间。”华商基金张博炜分析指出:“目前,银行代客远期结汇数据显示年初持续维持着净结汇的态势,反映出随着美元的持续走弱,人民币贬值预期明显减弱,贬值压力已经实质减轻,当前时点是前期干预政策退出的较好时间窗口。”
“另一方面,人民币兑一篮子货币的汇率指数目前也已经明显企稳,干预政策的退出也有助于持续维持人民币对一篮子货币汇率的稳定性。”华商基金张博炜观点认为。
风险提示
以上观点不带表投资建议,基金有风险,投资需谨慎。
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