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十年了,全球金融早期危机预警力提升了多少

2017-09-15 09:51:51   新华网

十年前那场国际金融危机的深刻教训是:在实体经济绩效未能同步提高、对“大而不能倒”的金融机构缺乏有效监管的情况下,放任金融过度深化、靠扩张信贷支撑经济增长,最终会对经济体系和金融秩序造成摧毁性的破坏。未来,全球究竟能在多大程度上避免大规模金融危机的发生,既取决于主要经济体能否在止住“脱实入虚”趋势的基础上迈上内生性经济增长轨道,也取决于各国在核心金融信息沟通和经济金融政策协调,进而在监管接口方面能否迈出建设性步伐。

李克强总理日前同世界银行行长金墉、国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德、世界贸易组织总干事阿泽维多等6大国际经济金融机构负责人举行第二次“1+6”圆桌对话会议,以“构建开放、活力、包容的世界经济”为主题,围绕“全球经济形势与经济全球化的未来”、“推动中国经济转型升级”两个议题深入探讨。这是在不到14个月内,我国总理两次与主要国际经济金融机构的负责人集体对全球经济把脉。

今年距2007年爆发的国际金融危机正好十年,尽管就单一个体而言,人可以选择性遗忘,但对具有全球责任感的政治与财经领袖而言,对这场百年一遇的金融危机,是绝不能选择性遗忘的。

十年,在人类的时间光谱中微不足道,但提到这场金融危机的冲击与危害之大,亲历者至今依然惊魂未定。在雷曼兄弟公司破产后的第四天,也就是2008年9月18日,美国货币市场基金体系差点就崩溃了。保尔森在他的回忆录《峭壁边缘:拯救世界金融之路》中这样写道:“9月17日早上6点半我到达财政部,7点刚过布什总统打来电话,我告诉他市场被恐慌推动。我很关心货币基金市场,看到它的资金正在被抽空。我们四面受敌。”早上7点到7点40分,财政部外部顾问威尔逊三次给保尔森打来电话,告诉了他掌握的惊人消息:纽约梅隆银行CEO、黑岩公司总裁、北方信托CEO都提出请求,希望赎买他们的货币市场基金。Reserve Primary Fund已经很糟糕,但如果这些机构的基金都跌破资产净值,就会遭遇全面崩盘,因为企业、保险公司、养老基金和众多散户都会同时想到要收回他们的投资。保尔森当时的判断是:毫无疑问,金融系统已经彻底偏离了轨道。果然,9月18日上午11时,美联储发现,货币市场中高达5500亿美元的资金在不到2小时内就被国际投资人“电子挤兑”。美联储紧急注入1050亿美元,依然无力阻止资金狂逃。如果再不采取断然措施,到下午2点,货币市场中的3.5万亿美元有被全部挤兑的危险。24小时之内,世界金融系统将彻底瘫痪。最后,保尔森动用汇率稳定基金给货币市场基金做了担保,才阻止了货币市场基金的全面崩盘。

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