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欧洲经济为何陷于“换挡”之困

2017-09-10 10:26:38   新华网

新华社法兰克福9月10日电 题:欧洲经济为何陷于“换挡”之困

新华社记者沈忠浩

作为工业革命的发源地,欧洲曾拥有人类最先进的生产力,一度领跑世界经济。然而近些年来,欧洲经济疲态尽显,迄今没有完全从金融危机中缓过劲来,发展仍陷于“换挡”之困。

 复苏仍不稳固

今年以来,欧洲经济开始发力,第二季度欧元区经济同比增幅达到2.3%。同时,失业率继续回落,7月份欧元区失业率降至9.1%这一8年多来最低水平。

数据看似不俗,但分析人士普遍认为,欧洲经济距稳固、平衡、可持续增长仍有不小距离。布鲁塞尔欧洲与全球经济研究所副所长玛莉亚·德梅齐说:“最近欧洲的确出现了新的增长,但(增长)仍然疲弱且不稳定。”

记者在走访法国东部洛林地区时的所见所闻也验证了专家的看法。在这一曾经的欧洲煤钢重镇,记者感受到触目惊心的萧条:商铺成片关门、餐馆无人问津、偷税漏税成风……经济长期萎靡让人们对未来失去盼头,社会没了“精气神”。

“我们被抛弃了”、“这是一片没有希望的土地”,多位当地居民对记者这样说。

就连被视作“榜样”的德国,其看似稳健的复苏背后也存在隐忧。德意志银行上月发布报告说,强劲的周期性复苏掩盖了德国经济增长基础被逐渐削弱的事实,预计到2025年,德国经济增速将不及2016年增速的一半。

与此同时,一些欧洲国家严重的结构性失业问题仍未见改善,特别是年轻人失业问题成为经济复苏的巨大拖累。欧盟统计局数据显示,今年7月,欧元区年轻人失业率达到19.1%,其中西班牙年轻人失业率高达38.6%。

 经济政策“跛脚”

当前,欧洲经济复苏仍高度依赖央行“放水”,以至于欧洲央行迄今没有足够信心退出量化宽松政策。相比之下,财政政策刺激不足,结构性改革滞后。

在持续去杠杆过程中,投资对欧洲经济增长的贡献偏低。目前,欧元区企业投资占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重约为15%,远低于危机前水平。

同时,欧元区在减债与扩大公共投资之间陷入两难。今年第一季度,欧元区国家公共债务占GDP的比重升至89.5%。

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