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资金市场监测:利率市场涨跌各半
2017-09-14 09:47:42 中国经济网
9月13日,Shibor市场四涨四跌,波动幅度继续收窄,资金供求短期延续平衡局面。代表性利率的7天Shibor微涨0.20个基点至2.8056%,环比上周同期小幅下行。美元指数反弹乏力,短期难有起色。人民币汇率上升幅度超过100个基点,升值势头暂时停止,能否稳定,有待于观察。隔夜利率微涨0.17个基点至2.6500%,环比上周同期小幅上涨。14天利率微涨0.18个基点至3.7103%。一个月利率下跌0.49个基点至3.9305%,继续在“4%”附近振荡。十九大前夕,热点板块开始降温,市场炒作有走弱迹象,资金离场观望的可能性增加,基本面处于“真空期”。中长期利率延续小幅振荡,3个月、6个月、9个月和1年期利率分别报4.3711%、4.3891%、4.3957%、4.4010%。
表为Shibor(人民币)报价
近期上证综指仍处于上涨通道,近期展开调整的可能性增加。从日K线走势上分析,目前大盘横盘整理,可能是以时间换空间,深调或暴涨的可能性都较小。近期市场的波动比较大,在权重股持续力度不足的情况下,大盘或将迎来转折点,蓝筹股面临方向选择。本周大盘上涨受阻,主要是金融板块有调整迹象,如保险板块和银行板块。由于两者在指数中权重较大,其调整也对市场有较大的影响。自5月以来,保险板块和银行板块涨幅较大,需要进行修正,十九大前夕就是一个较好的调整契机。近期股市延续调整的一个重要原因就是资源股的强势,尤其是在国企混改预期情况下的一些龙头企业表现较好。此外,市场部分资金涌入新能源板块、次新股等,这也是潜在的风险之一。一旦预期落空,资金出逃,带来的调整可能超过预期。总之,近期行情谨慎为主,可以适当用股指期货规避风险。
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