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PVC期货价格冲高回落

2017-09-14 07:17:25   中国经济网

今年下半年以来,大商所PVC(聚氯乙烯)期货迎来一波快速上涨行情,PVC期货从7月初的6110元/吨上涨至9月初的7975元/吨,达到了年内最高位。随后,PVC期货开始接连回调,截至9月13日收盘,PVC期货主力合约1801当日大跌3.36%,报收7345元/吨,较9月初的最高点下跌了630元/吨。

PVC是我国重要的有机合成材料,广泛应用于工业、建筑业、农业和日用生活等领域。

从PVC现货市场来看,其现货价格走势与期货价格基本趋同,华北、华东等地区的PVC现货价格较主力合约1801略有升水。方正中期期货分析师夏聪聪表示,“作为PVC上游原料,电石价格由于四川、河南、山西等地区上涨,带动了PVC价格上升。前期,四川等地的环保督查升级,石灰石供应紧张,造成当地电石生产开工率明显下降。受到货源紧张地区的涨价带动,西北等地的电石价格也多数上涨”。据了解,我国PVC生产主要以电石法为主,约占我国PVC总产能的70%以上。在电石价格上涨后,PVC也随之上涨。

此外,从国内主要的PVC生产企业来看,其开工率继续小幅下滑。统计数据显示,今年8月份,国内PVC厂家整体开工率为69.78%,环比下降1.07%;其中电石法PVC开工率68.96%,环比下降0.59%;乙烯法PVC开工率74.15%,环比下降3.57%。相反,需求端并未减弱。今年7月份,国内PVC表观消费量累计值达到1054.60万吨,与2016年同期水平相比增加12.20%。

在PVC价格前期出现大幅上涨之后,9月初以来,国内PVC现货市场价格稳中下滑,交投不温不火,气氛已经相对偏淡。夏聪聪表示,未来环保督查从严、交通运输紧张、电石成本上升等影响均将对市场形成支撑,但PVC生产厂家陆续有检修,电石企业生产逐渐恢复稳定,电石市场供应明显紧张态势将会有一定改善。

有业内人士表示,目前PVC下游企业采购成本压力较大,部分企业出现亏损,对高价PVC的采购积极性欠佳。不过,由于PVC生产企业库存普遍偏低,报价坚挺,贸易商补货成本增加,预计未来PVC价格总体调整幅度较为有限。(经济日报记者何 川)

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