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8月出口增速创下半年新低 专家称汇率对出口扰动恐增强

2017-09-11 07:07:38   中国经济网

每经记者 张怀水 每经编辑 陈旭

在延续5个月的两位数增长之后,我国8月外贸出口增速首次跌入个位数增长,成为半年来增速新低,与7月相比,8月出口增速环比下降4.3个百分点。

9月8日,海关总署公布今年前8个月外贸进出口情况。数据显示,今年前8个月,我国货物贸易进出口总值17.83万亿元人民币,比去年同期(下同)增长17.1%。其中,出口9.85万亿元,增长13%;进口7.98万亿元,增长22.5%;贸易顺差1.87万亿元,收窄15.1%。

8月当月,我国进出口总值2.41万亿元,增长10.1%。其中,出口1.35万亿元,增长6.9%;进口1.06万亿元,增长14.4%;贸易顺差2865亿元,收窄14%。这也是继今年2月份以来,单月出口增速首次低于10%。

汇率走高制约出口增长

海关总署数据显示,2017年前7个月中,除2月以外,其余月份出口增速均保持两位数增长。其中3月份出口增速更达到22.3%,创今年上半年最高单月增速。

针对8月份出口增速大幅下滑,商务部研究院国际市场研究所副所长白明告诉《每日经济新闻》记者,人民币升值、外需疲软是导致出口增速下滑的主要原因。“近两个月人民币对美元的汇率出现较大幅度的上涨,导致中国出口到国外的产品价格优势减弱,这可能对出口带来了不利的影响。”

今年年初以来,随着美元走弱,人民币对美元汇率趋势走强。而进入7月之后,人民币汇率升值的步伐进一步加快,从6月底的接近6.8快速升至6.44左右,并且近期以来,人民币对主要货币均呈现升值的趋势。白明分析说,美元走弱从今年年初就已显现,但7月以后,美元对人民币汇率的弱势超出市场预期,到目前跌幅已接近7%,这在一方面会在客观上影响我国出口产品的价格优势;另一方面也会对中国出口企业的信心产生冲击。

据兴业宏观统计,8月以美元计出口增速从7月的7.2%回落至5.5%,同比增速连续2个月回落,并延续今年3月以来出口整体回落的趋势。从8月分地区的出口可以看出,对欧美出口均出现不同程度回落,其中对欧洲出口回落幅度较大。从产品结构来看,受汇率影响较敏感的纺织、服装、箱包等劳动密集型产品出口降幅明显,拖累8月出口同比回落1.3个百分点。

从出口产品结构来看,机电产品、劳动密集型产品仍是中国出口产品主力。今年前8个月,我国机电产品占出口总值的50.7%。而服装、纺织、鞋类、家具、塑料制品、箱包、玩具七大类劳动密集型产品占我国出口总值的20%以上。

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