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美联储加息效应递减 金银维持强势
2017-09-07 09:51:59 中国经济网
目前通胀是制约美联储加息的主要因素。最新公布的美国7月核心物价指数显示,美国7月核心PCE物价指数同比增长1.4%,增速跌至2015年12月以来最低水平;7月核心PCE物价指数环比增长0.1%,持平预期和前值。短期内金银将呈现振荡偏强走势,关注伦敦金阻力位1230美元/盎司,伦敦银阻力位18美元/盎司。
美联储加息预期逐步减弱
美国虽然上调了二季度的经济增速,但依旧无法增强年内再加息两次的预期。今年以来,美国经济增速放缓,细分来看,美国8月制造业创新高,新订单数也有所增加,符合一直以来制造业复苏的趋势;房地产方面,处于供不应求格局,房屋价格位于高位,但高企的房价影响了房屋的销售。此外,美联储最关心的是就业和通胀,目前就业持续处于稳健状态,薪资增速表现良好。制造业和建筑业的就业有明显增加,但服务业的就业略显不足,整体可能拖累就业的增长。今年2月以来,通胀数据一直下滑且目前仍没有转好的迹象,这使得美联储的加息预期逐渐降温,美债实际利率呈现下滑趋势。整体来看,美国经济依旧处于温和复苏的进程中,但通胀成为美联储加息路径上的最大障碍,若四季度通胀没有明显好转,12月加息恐将泡汤。
欧元兑美元持续升值
今年以来,欧元兑美元持续升值,主要是欧元区经济复苏强势。但下半年以来,欧元区经济出现一定程度的放缓,这使得市场对欧元区退出宽松的时间预期有所推迟,叠加欧央行官员的“欧元过于强势”的言论,使得欧元面临回调压力。从欧元区的经济复苏来看,整体好于美国,制造业稳步回升,新订单处于增加中,通胀温和上行,支撑欧元走强。预计短期内欧元区经济复苏维持目前良好的局面,但考虑到欧元区退出宽松的时间会推迟,因而欧元兑美元继续上涨的空间偏小。同时,全球一系列不确定性事件仍未结束,存在潜在的风险,市场恐慌指数VIX波动较大,对金银存在有力支撑。
总之,短期来看,美联储加息预期的降温仍对金银存在一定支撑,接下来密切关注欧央行的利率决议。预计短期内伦敦金维持在1220美元/盎司一线波动,伦敦银维持在17.5美元/盎司一线波动。
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