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巴西央行报告:今年经济将增长0.5% 通胀率3.38%

2017-09-07 09:42:38   中国经济网

中新社圣保罗9月4日电 (记者 莫成雄)当地时间9月4日,巴西央行发布的最新《焦点调查》报告显示,金融市场分析师预测,巴西今年经济将增长0.5%,通胀率为3.38%。

据金融市场分析师预测,今年巴西经济将增长0.5%,高于上周预估的增长0.39%。2018年将增长2%,与上周预测一致。

对于通货膨胀,分析师持乐观态度,他们预测巴西今年通胀率为3.38%,低于上周预估的3.45%。这个通胀数据也低于今年政府管控目标4.5%。2018年通胀率预计为4.18%,低于上周预期的4.2%。

对于基准利率,分析师认为,目前巴西通胀率持续走低,为刺激经济增长,巴西央行年内将会继续降息。预计到今年年底前,巴西的基准利率将从目前的9.25%降至7.25%。2018年年底前基准利率将升至7.5%。

汇率方面,分析师预测,今年底前,巴西雷亚尔与美元的汇率将从上周预估的3.23比1下降至3.2比1。2018年底前的汇率将为3.35比1,低于上周预期的3.38比1。

分析师还预测,巴西今明两年外贸顺差将分别为613.5亿美元和480亿美元。而巴西今明两年利用外资额将同为750亿美元。

《焦点调查》是巴西央行发布的宏观经济预测报告,由当地主要金融机构100名分析师的意见汇总而成,每周发布一次。(完)

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