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基金经理:人民币升值下的投资逻辑

2017-09-08 09:12:22   新华网

该基金经理对记者表示:“外资口味已经显示出对新经济更加看好。深圳市场新经济的占比较高,而海外投资者考虑内地目前各种各样的投资机会时,会更加重视新经济这一块,所以深圳市场的优势更大一点。北向资金或对大中盘成长股更感兴趣,其中尤以消费品、医疗保健和科技领域为先,这也是未来内地资金关注的重点。”

寻求逆袭的机会

今年上半年,由于人民币汇率节节升高,机构资金从QDII中逐渐撤离。近期,多位基金经理对记者表示,在美元持续走软下,原油QDII、普通股票基金及偏股型基金中的能源及化工板块,都有望从中大幅受益。

今年前8个月,原油类QDII以负10%的平均净值增长率,成为表现最差的基金品种。究其原因,国际油价不断下跌起到了关键作用。然而,从基本面来看,本周俄罗斯和沙特正在考虑延长减产协议,导致美油曾一度涨近3%。此外,美国哈维飓风将导致美国化工品出口减少,有望拉动国内丙烯酸等出口增加,或将造成国内供应紧张,价格上涨。9月份以来,商品期货中多个能化品种创下阶段新高。在采访中,记者了解到,能源化工板块已经成为一些基金重点关注的品种。

此外,多数基金经理都看好人民币大幅升值背景下,航空、旅游的反转机会。沪上一名基金经理表示,对于A股上市公司来说,市场最认可的人民币升值概念股就是航空公司和造纸等板块。由于航空公司的飞机租赁和境外采购等都是以美元消费,如果人民币对美元升值的话,公司成本就会减少,收入相应增加。造纸行业主要原材料源于进口,据测算,人民币升值2%,可使造纸行业成本减少0.51%,毛利率提高3.01%,利润总额增加达8.79%。记者 朱贤佳

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