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“金九”消费旺季到来 沪胶去库存周期延续

2017-09-08 08:56:55   中国经济网

偏多氛围支撑,价格维持涨势

三季度以来,随着沪胶主力合约的移仓换月,2016年的老胶仓单压力消失,1801合约期价重心稳步抬升,自15000元/吨一线攀升至9月初的17500元/吨。考虑到“金九”消费旺季到来、轮胎行业掀起新一轮涨价潮,加之美元指数疲弱、环保因素刺激合成胶涨价,沪胶1801合约具有再上一个台阶的动力。

美元指数走势疲弱

备受关注的Jackson Hole全球央行研讨会于8月26日落下帷幕,然而会议结果出乎市场预料。可以看到,美联储主席耶伦在会议上对货币政策“避而不谈”,更多强调应温和调整金融监管。与此同时,欧洲央行行长德拉吉也未提及退出QE路线。

两位重量级“大佬”的表态均比预期更偏鸽派有其背后的原因。近期经济数据显示,欧元区制造业持续向好,为经济稳健复苏提供重要基石,从而对欧元区核心通胀中枢抬升形成支撑,而美国PMI、耐用品订单、地产销量与核心通胀等经济数据均低于市场预期,表明其经济复苏仍然疲弱,这在很大程度上降低了美联储继续加息及开启缩表的可能性。美元也因此持续萎靡不振。

据显示,今年以来,美元指数维持振荡回落的态势,自103一线逐渐走低至92附近,创逾一年新低。美元指数的疲弱,给商品市场营造了偏多氛围。

保价措施值得关注

虽说今年年初泰国遭遇洪水侵袭,导致胶水产量出现阶段性下滑,但在新胶树面积扩增、产能陆续释放的背景下,产胶量在随后的几个月重新回升并保持增长态势。天胶生产国协会(ANRPC)发布的最新报告显示,2017年1—7月,全球(含非ANRPC国家)天然橡胶产量同比增长5%,ANRPC成员国产量同比增长3.82%。其中,中国、印尼、越南、马来西亚、印度分别增长5.4%、4.8%、13.1%、20.4%和28.5%,柬埔寨增速甚至达到32.3%。而1—7月,全球(含非ANRPC国家)天然橡胶消费量为748.6万吨,同比微增0.4%,供应缺口达到64.8万吨。

虽然多数国家天然橡胶消费量同比出现正增长,但中国消费量同比下滑8.2万吨,至284.5万吨,拉低了整体增速。预计2017年全球天然橡胶产量同比增长5.9%,至1279.7万吨;消费量同比增长1.7%,至1290万吨。

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