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价在量先 A股热点轮动加快

2017-09-08 08:21:46   中国经济网

当前,沪指突破3300点,创业板指站上1900点而后回落,目前市场做多氛围逐渐累积,不过量能并未能随着大盘重心的上移而进一步提升,创业板量价配合相对较好,普涨格局难以持续。由此,创业板迎来活跃契机,题材热成为主流,周期和金融等板块明显乏力;不过量能不足使得热点切换速度加快,赚钱难度增加。操作上切忌追涨杀跌,寻找超跌股或前期经过调整的热点股适当潜伏是主策略。

量能不足指数滞涨

昨日,A股市场整体先扬后抑,尾盘跳水,沪指跌破5日均线和10日均线,创业板指虽然盘中创出反弹新高,但最终未能守住1900点,止步六连阳。

整个盘面中最重要的特征就是,周期股大面积回调。尽管房地产板块以2.2%的涨幅遥遥领先,但煤炭、有色金属、钢铁位居中信一级行业跌幅榜前三位,分别下跌2.09%、1.96%和1.56%,而这三个板块均位居今年以来涨幅最大的前四名之列,累计涨幅均超过25%,尽管仍有多重因素支撑,但短线“高处不胜寒”的特征较为突出。

而周期股的低迷显然影响了近期市场的量能。虽然指数重心近期小幅上移,但是量能却反反复复,始终未能超过8月下旬上攻阶段的情况。昨日上证综指成交2640.37亿元,低于8月28日到9月4日之间每天的日成交额,当时正处于3300点冲关之时。分析人士指出,此前主力利用权重撬动指数,金融、周期共同助力指数冲关成功。而实际上,其他板块个股则鲜少从中受益,如果这些强势品种走弱,则也会引发其他板块跟着跳水,市场避险情绪自然升温。

如果量能不能有效放大,则面临上攻3400点的压制,指数大概率欲振乏力。招商证券指出,上周指数连续一周高位强势调整,但近期量能有所萎缩,若短期内无法以放量中阳线向上突破,则仍有回调至缺口附近寻找支撑的可能性,创业板沿着5日均线温和上行,量价配合相对较好,短期反弹仍有空间。

中信建投证券指出,现在大家主要担心指数站上重要关口后没有像样的整固和回调会上涨得不牢靠,而且量能的硬伤也还没有根本缓解。这的确是行情后续发展的一个隐忧,但在9月的时间窗口期,这个隐忧爆发的时间可能会推后,指数更可能表现为颤颤巍巍的震荡攀升,而盘中热点的轮动和切换会更加快速,从而增加赚钱的难度。

热点快轮避免追高

本周以来,A股市场热点每日都不同,周一的餐饮旅游、周二的锂电池、周三成长题材集体热舞,到周四的房地产板块,切换速度较快,追涨的风险较大。

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