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限制代币发行会不会驱赶资金进入A股市场?

2017-09-06 08:01:41   中国经济网

刘柯

央行等多部委联合对代币实施了最无情的打击,直接将首次代币发行 (ICO)定性为非法融资,下一步就是严厉的取缔行动。ICO的定性势必冲击整个代币市场,最有代表性的比特币每枚单日下跌3000元。

现在去探讨代币这种虚拟货币的起源意义已经不大,在互联网这个虚拟世界,一切皆有可能,现实世界有的东西,虚拟世界都有,而且虚拟世界的东西更多。但代币能在这么短短几年时间被爆炒,其实和现实世界有很大关系,可以说没有现实世界的流动性泛滥,就不会有代币“惊天动地”的行情,这一切都是炒作,就像很多人说股票都是电子符号,每一只股票的背后尽管有一个实体公司在做后盾,但股价往往都不是实体公司的具象反映,而是一种虚拟的前瞻性反映。如果按这个逻辑,活跃于虚拟世界的代币被炒作的理由更充分。

代币繁荣的背后,是现实世界流动性泛滥的结果,作为虚拟世界的货币符号,其被炒作有客观原因。再加上传销般的赚钱效应,泛滥的流动性让代币市场水涨船高,一家ICO创业公司可以在短短三个小时内就吸引超过1.5亿美元的投资,融资速度超快的背后,就是大量流动性在投机。这与很多金融衍生品一样,没有实际价值,但它可以交易,比如期权产品就是典型,它只代表投资者对未来涨跌的一种预判,但依旧可以成为交易的对象。

很多人认为,由于代币市场过于火爆,对于代币的这次严厉整顿,会不会驱使部分资金回流到传统意义上正规的资本市场,比如股市。理论上讲,代币市场处于高位,资金获利众多,再加上利空突袭,这些资金重新选择估值洼地是很正常的。但是,不要就此认为这些流动性会到A股中来。首先我们要清楚,这部分资金投机性很强,而A股市场目前处于严格的监管之中,这些资金很难从A股市场寻找到合适的炒作标的。因此,对于其它正规的衍生品市场来说,这些资金倒是依旧可以大展拳脚,因为金融衍生品的投机性大过A股,这也是为什么A股市场波澜不惊,但部分拥有正规衍生品交易资源的个股被爆炒的原因。

从长远的角度看,代币是一种趋势,互联网只要存在,代币肯定就会存在。从这个角度看,炒作代币的资金或许只是暂时做做高抛低吸而已,还很难说走就走。而且就目前A股市场的监管情况看,也不会欢迎这些炒作资金进来兴风作浪。目前A股市场可以期盼的资金援军,个人认为还是房地产市场的溢出资金、海外投资受限的民营资本和从银行间同业市场溢出的需要稳定投资收益的资金。

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