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小金属领涨有色板块 钴价有望迎“金九”行情

2017-09-01 09:11:36   新华网

今年走红A股市场的小金属概念股,在8月最后一个交易日再度走出大涨行情。

8月31日收盘,Wind小金属指数报涨2.58%,5日涨幅达5.88%。板块内41只个股中,仅6只下跌,鹏欣资源、翔鹭钨业、融捷股份、寒锐钴业涨停,洛阳钼业涨8.82%。在小金属个股强力带动下,有色金属板块领涨大盘。截至昨日收盘,Wind中信一级有色板块涨1.24%。

今年小金属涨价潮中,最具代表性的当属金属钴。

“截至8月31日,国内金属钴报价在42.88万元/吨,较8月初的39.98万吨,上涨已有约8%,较年初的27万元/吨,已上涨超过58%。”生意社分析师范艳霞称,虽然近一周以来钴价走势略有回落,但整体涨幅明显。近期主要生产企业报价也均上调至44万元/吨以上。当前钴价格处于2011年以来高位。

数据统计,国内金属钴价格自2016年7月份开始上涨,至11月上涨幅度超过30%;到2017年4月,累计增长已有约1.5倍。而今年6月份以来,钴价迎来了年内第二波涨价势头,一直持续至今。

值得注意的是,尽管一年多来钴价涨势凌厉,但当前价格仍处于历史中游水平。

分析师叶建军称,钴价最高时卖到80万元/吨以上,但在2008年后就开始一路走低。2016年2月至10月间,钴价一直盘踞在21万元/吨左右的价格区间。

“钴市之所以连涨一年主要还是供需不平衡导致,国内产量远远满足不了需求。”范艳霞称,2016年我国钴消费量约为4.6万吨,且每年约有90%以上依靠进口,而未来几年内供需不平衡的状况不会被打破,钴价上涨的势头短期内不会改变。随着新能源汽车加快发展,政策对高能量密度电池的支持力度不断加大,对钴的需求形成支撑,而钴产能增长有限,对市场良好的预期助推了本轮涨势。此外,数据显示,LME钴现货卖价从8月初的58000美元/吨涨至60000美元/吨,较6月初上涨10%,基本上触及到了年内高位。外盘的走涨带动了国内现货市场。同时,国内生产商对进口矿价成本上升预期加强,激活了市场投资投机活力。

范艳霞表示,受益上半年动力电池三元材料需求大增,作为必需元素的钴,价格持续走牛,也带动产业链上游多家上市公司业绩大增。华友钴业近日披露半年报,上半年实现营业收入37.88亿元,同比增长近75%,实现净利润6.75亿元,而上年同期公司亏损3128.72万元。随着金九银十的到来,钴市有望延续此波涨势。

除金属钴外,近期由于新能源汽车后市被广泛看好,动力电池的另一材料碳酸锂价格,近期也大幅上涨。

“就在8月31日,多家厂商再度上调了碳酸锂价格。当前国内工业级碳酸锂(含量99%)价格在12.8万元/吨至13.5万元/吨,电池级碳酸锂(含量99.5%)价格在14万元/吨至15万元/吨,有的厂家报价甚至已到16万元/吨。”生意社相关分析师称,8月份以来国内电池级碳酸锂价格涨幅已近10%,近一周以来涨势最为明显。当前相关生产厂家普遍不愿对外报价,蓄货待涨意图明显。

据悉,目前碳酸锂企业库存处于相对低位,市场供应偏紧。一方面碳酸锂上游原材料价格上涨,产能难以释放,将推动商品价格持续上行。另一方面,新能源汽车发展势头强劲,市场需求大幅增加,厂家对后市普遍看好。(记者 赵黎昀)

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