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原料药或涨价停供 终端药难跟风上涨

2017-09-06 07:56:52   中国经济网

日前环保部、发改委等10部委,联合北京、河北等6省(市)政府下发《京津冀及周边地区2017~2018年秋冬季大气污染综合治理攻坚行动方案》(简称《方案》),特别强调:涉及原料药生产的医药企业,如果违反排放工序原则上将实施停产。业内人士表示:“原料药企不少是污染大户,这么动真格势必关停一批工厂,下游可能面临时不时的缺货断供,但终端药难以跟着涨价。”

原料药行业或迎来大洗牌

据悉,去年底,石药、华北制药等原料药生产企业因环保不达标被勒令停产且损失惨重,据华北制药的公告显示,因停产净利润损失5493亿元。

《方案》显示,从2017年7月1日起,严格执行石化行业排放标准要求,推进医药等行业VOCs(挥发性有机物)的综合治理。在2017年10月底前,各地基本完成整治工作,未完成治理改造的企业,依法实施停产整治,纳入各地冬季错峰生产方案。2017年12月底前,完成原料药制造等行业排污许可证核发工作。

对超标排放企业而言,这次的《方案》处罚措施可谓非常“贵”,即超即罚意味能立即整改的,责令企业立即整改解决;无法立即完成整改的,实施停产整治;对涉及民生无法立即停产的依法执行“按日计罚”。

“最近就有原料药厂检查不过关被收回GMP证书的,由此导致市面常规药供应紧张、经销商抓紧囤货。原料药企是污染重灾区,随着新政实施,未来可以预见的是一批药企会关停整改。”对此,一位行业观察人士告诉记者。

据了解,去年至今,停产限产主要集中在原料药企业和中药饮片生产企业这两大环保、质量问题重灾区,而在环保政策不断升级背景下,短期内我国原料药行业或将迎来大洗牌。

“环保利剑高悬,或倒逼企业淘汰落后产能、或促使企业大规模搬迁,但环保升级也非一朝一夕可以完成,所以整个过程会逼不少中小药企出局,而环保措施到位的龙头企业市场份额则可能进一步上升。”该观察人士认为。

下游企业不敢随便涨价

长远来看,环保政策有利于原料药行业转型升级,但短期却可能带来涨价和断供的影响。分析人士认为,原料药有一大特点就是一对多,很可能就那么几家原料药企揽下了全国上百家药企的原料供应,这也是原料批文少等先天缺陷所致,所以一旦关停一些药企,就可能对市场供应和价格波动带来较大影响。

终端药会不会因此“水涨船高”,引发一轮价格普涨?该观察人士认为消费者不必太过担心。“下游制剂企业原料涨价很大程度要自行消化。” 背后还是价格监管在起作用。“药价放开后,药企并不敢随便调价,因为监控很严,有的药企宁可原料贵时暂时不生产,也不愿冒着被约谈的风险轻易涨价,尤其是对市场份额占比不高、不是公司‘摇钱树’的产品而言,更不会轻易涨价。”

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