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“救市资金”的进与退

2017-09-03 08:35:56   新华网

解读一些券商公布的2017年中报,细心的投资者可能会发现一个现象,这就是两年前券商出借给证金公司的资金,已经分批收回。这也就意味着,当年券商响应号召,划拨出去用于“救市”的资金,现在已经撤出了。

发生在2015年夏季的股灾,给人们留下了深刻的印象。当时市场突然出现了流动性枯竭现象,“千股涨停”瞬间变成了“千股跌停”。如果不能有效解决这个问题,很可能会引发金融风险。也就是在这样的背景下,有关方面展开了被称为“救市”的各种操作。这其中的主力是证金公司,它拿出自有资金,以及从银行借贷的资金,直接入市购买股票。另外,按照有关部门的部署,各证券公司也按其净资产的一定比例,向证金公司划拨资金,证金公司将这些资金主要用于购买公募基金。这些资金的大量入市,在当时起到了缓解流动性危机的作用,为市场的稳定作出了很大的贡献。不过,当时这些资金在投入操作后,大都出现过一定的浮动亏损。也因为这样,券商以划拨名义出借给证金公司的资金,也一直被投资者认为存在较大的风险,成为对券商股估值中的一个负面因素。

不过,这种状况在今年有了根本性的改变。前面提到,那些券商出借给证金公司的资金,证金公司是用来购买公募基金。这些公募基金,有些就是专门为这部分资金量身定制设立的,重点是投资大盘蓝筹股。如果说在一年多前,其本身的收益还并不理想的话,那么进入到2017年,随着蓝筹股行情的节节升温,这些公募基金的市值也有了提升,到今年二季度业绩扭亏为盈,并有了一定的浮动盈利。在这种情况下,有关方面选择了逐步退出的策略,分批兑现了本金和收益。客观而言,这样做有其必要性。毕竟这钱是借来的,不可能长时间在股市中使用。而且各券商也是独立法人,其对自有资金的权利也应该得到尊重。在非常时期所采取的措施,在这个时期过去以后,也是应该逐步取消的。如果说当初券商划拨资金给证金公司用于“救市”是不得已而为之,那么现在证金公司将这部分钱返还给券商,也是水到渠成的事情。

有人担心,现在“救市”资金撤了,股市是否又要扛不住了。其实,当初“救市”,从根本上讲是救流动性而不是救指数。换个角度来讲,指数也是不可能救的。经过两年多的努力,市场的流动性已经得到了恢复,而且指数也有了一定的起色,在这种情况下把“救市”资金继续留在市场上,作用就很有限了,并不利于市场的自主运行。实践也证明,这些资金的撤出,并没有影响到股市的正常运行,像大盘蓝筹股,该涨还是继续涨。因此,人们并不需要担忧“救市”资金的撤出问题。

另外,现在退出的主要是证金公司向券商借用的这部分资金,按入市时的规模推算,数量大体在2000亿元左右。证金公司以自有资金和向银行借贷的资金直接入市的那部分,目前看基本上还在市场中,当然这些资金也是在不断买卖,客观上已经从当年的“救市”资金演变成了如今的一支超级主力。而这部分资金的流向,对市场热点的生成,也起到了很大的作用,是投资者观察行情的重要风向标。此时,人们也不再关注它的“救市”功能了。

从长远的角度来看,任何形式的“救市”资金,都有其临时性的特征,退出是种必然。进一步说,它的退出,实际上也就意味着市场正常化。有鉴于此,对当前“救市”资金的退出,人们似乎应该以积极的态度来对待,将其视为利好更为符合实际。

(桂浩明 作者系申万宏源证券首席分析师)

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