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资金热情降温 热点“酝酿”切换

2017-08-29 09:16:58   中国经济网

周一,券商股受证金、汇金大举增持消息影响大幅上涨,带动大盘、行业板块全线飘红,沪深两市放量大涨,呈现普涨行情。虽然继上周五后,沪深两市资金仍呈现净流入态势,但已出现一些新特征。从总量来看,当前资金持续流入的意愿已开始下降,但从资金流向看,资金甄别板块的同时,新的市场热点似乎正在酝酿。

参与热情不高

昨日,上证综指走势较为“坚决”,全天高开高走,报收3362.82点,上涨0.94%。此外,次新股异常活跃,再次掀起涨停潮。市场中有目共睹的领涨力量无疑是券商板块。但相较之下资金持续参与的热情却开始出现冷却迹象。

总体来看,昨日两市成交量明显放大,说明场外资金对市场的介入意愿已开始上升。而从资金流入方面来看,昨日虽是两市资金连续第二个交易日呈现出净流入态势,但值得注意的是,相较上周五两市113.16亿元净流入额,周一两市的净流入额仅为16.37亿元。一方面表明了投资者对后市偏向乐观的态度依然延续,但另一方面也说明市场持续看涨意愿不高。

另一个值得重视的变化体现在开盘流出和尾盘流入的“一升一降”上来。据数据,昨日开盘时两市资金净流出量较上周五上升明显,从上周五时的46.80亿元上升至昨日的69.89亿元。而临近尾盘,资金虽呈现净流入态势但较上周五下降明显,从上周五时的36.69亿元骤降至2365.20万元。上述两组数据的升降,一定程度上反映出多方持续看涨的决心似乎并不如预期般坚决。

众所周知,资金变动情况有着丰富的意涵。东北证券认为,当前行情近似于去年8月上旬上证综指突破3100点时的状态。而在上证突破3300点之后,后续关注的焦点问题是能否吸引到增量资金的进入。

华鑫证券也指出,上周A股的交易总额约2.24万亿元,是过去五周交易额最低的一周,说明上周突破并非是多方力量的强劲,而是空方阻力的弱势,所以短期虽大概率仍就保有上攻的动能,但后市仍旧需要关注的是增量资金变化,倘若量价连续背离,上行趋势有待考证,但若后期量能够有效跟进,指数将进入新的箱体空间。

热点酝酿切换

周一行业板块全线“飘红”,热点“全面开花”,与之相应的是,资金配置重点似乎已不局限于蓝筹品种,有加仓成长板块的趋势。除券商股发力支撑大盘持续向上外,中小创的活跃是昨日盘面的另一大特征,盘面风格似乎又显露出切换的“端倪”。

从行业涨跌情况来看,昨日28个申万一级行业至收盘时全数实现上涨,其中非银金融的涨幅最高,达3.77%。其余涨幅居前的还有有色金属、电子、传媒、通信等板块。行业方面,28个申万一级行业中,11个行业实现净流入,但有17个行业呈现净流出态势。反映出市场仍在对板块的投资价值持续进行甄别。从资金流入规模来看,流入居前的行业中,非银金融、有色金属、传媒、电子四个行业的净流入额分别达到45.73亿元、8.02亿元、7.84亿元和6.61亿元。而这四个行业也恰好是涨幅居前的四个板块,这一情况说明了资金在上述四个板块中的流入与四个板块的上涨存在较为直接的联系。

个股方面,券商股“独领风骚”。在流入规模居前的10只个股中,除方大炭素和天齐锂业、海康威视外,其余8只均为券商股。

针对后市,银河证券表示,从市场层面来看,当前A股存在四大风格明显的板块,白马消费股、中上游强周期股、超跌成长股、大金融股。当前大金融、强周期及近期超跌的创业板已先后出场。而今年以来白马消费股表现持续稳定向好,该机构预计,年末白马消费龙头和大金融板块仍有表现机会。

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